气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.009
	Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime
	Duveneck M.J.; Thompson J.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0959-3780
EISSN	1872-9495
起始页码	115
结束页码	129
卷号	55 页码:115-129
英文摘要	The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC—an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m −2 ). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape's potential to store carbon and the landscape's current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	DINAMICA LANDIS-II New England Disturbance Climate change
英文关键词	Climate change; DINAMICA; Disturbance; LANDIS-II; New England
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Geography
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000463982000011
scopus关键词	climate change; disturbance; forest ecosystem; future prospect; geographical variation; land use; land use change; landscape; tree; New England; North America; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/81475
作者单位	Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA 01366, United States; New England Conservatory, Boston, MA 02115, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duveneck M.J.,Thompson J.R.. Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime[J],2019,55:115-129.
APA	Duveneck M.J.,&Thompson J.R..(2019).Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime.Global Environmental change,55,115-129.
MLA	Duveneck M.J.,et al."Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England: Effects of a modern land-use regime".Global Environmental change 55(2019):115-129.