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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0500-2
	Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change
	Gomes V.H.F.; Vieira I.C.G.; Salomão R.P.; ter Steege H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:7 页码:547-+
英文摘要	Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58% in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36% and climate change 31–37% by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65% of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53% may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario—assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress—suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53% of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000472753300019
scopus关键词	biodiversity; climate change; conservation status; deforestation; protected area; rainforest; Red List; species richness; tree; Amazonia
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/78723
作者单位	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Ambientais, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Brazil; Coordenação de Botânica, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, Brazil; Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia, Belém, Brazil; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands; Systems Ecology, Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gomes V.H.F.,Vieira I.C.G.,Salomão R.P.,et al. Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change[J],2019,9(7):547-+.
APA	Gomes V.H.F.,Vieira I.C.G.,Salomão R.P.,&ter Steege H..(2019).Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change.Nature Climate Change,9(7),547-+.
MLA	Gomes V.H.F.,et al."Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change".Nature Climate Change 9.7(2019):547-+.