气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0527-4
	Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity
	Nijsse F.J.M.M.; Cox P.M.; Huntingford C.; Williamson M.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
EISSN	1758-6798
卷号	9 期号:8 页码:598-+
英文摘要	Climate-related risks are dependent not only on the warming trend from GHGs, but also on the variability about the trend. However, assessment of the impacts of climate change tends to focus on the ultimate level of global warming1, only occasionally on the rate of global warming, and rarely on variability about the trend. Here we show that models that are more sensitive to GHGs emissions (that is, higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)) also have higher temperature variability on timescales of several years to several decades2. Counter-intuitively, high-sensitivity climates, as well as having a higher chance of rapid decadal warming, are also more likely to have had historical ‘hiatus’ periods than lower-sensitivity climates. Cooling or hiatus decades over the historical period, which have been relatively uncommon, are more than twice as likely in a high-ECS world (ECS = 4.5 K) compared with a low-ECS world (ECS = 1.5 K). As ECS also affects the background warming rate under future scenarios with unmitigated anthropogenic forcing, the probability of a hyper-warming decade—over ten times the mean rate of global warming for the twentieth century—is even more sensitive to ECS. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
学科领域	Environmental Sciences;Environmental Studies;Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000477738300014
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/78560
作者单位	College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nijsse F.J.M.M.,Cox P.M.,Huntingford C.,et al. Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity[J],2019,9(8):598-+.
APA	Nijsse F.J.M.M.,Cox P.M.,Huntingford C.,&Williamson M.S..(2019).Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity.Nature Climate Change,9(8),598-+.
MLA	Nijsse F.J.M.M.,et al."Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity".Nature Climate Change 9.8(2019):598-+.