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| Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change | |
| 项目编号 | R824802 |
| Dennis P. Lettenmaier | |
| 项目主持机构 | University of Kansas |
| 开始日期 | 1995-10-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2000-03-01 |
| 英文摘要 | Project Research Results Final Report 1999 1998 1997 1996 8 publications for this project 5 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change EPA Grant Number: R824802 Title: Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Wood, Eric F. Current Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Palmer, Richard , Wood, Eric F. Institution:University of Washington , Princeton University EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena Project Period: October 1, 1995 through March 31, 2000 Project Amount: $463,762 RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)Recipients Lists Research Category:Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration ,Global Climate Change ,Water ,Climate Change Description: The two major objectives of this project are: a) to develop an approach that resolves the present climate bias problem instochastic weather generators used to downscale GCM climate predictions; and b) to study the interaction of the climaticdependence of water supply and demand for water resource systems where municipal and industrial, agricultural water supply,and energy generation are the major system uses. The work in the first area has focused on off-line simulation of globalsoil moisture, which is required to produce GCM runs in which the effect of drift in land (and sea) surface conditions iseliminated. The general approach is to run the land surface scheme (VIC-2L) using observed precipitation and temperature at two degreelatitude by longitude spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. An approach will be developed to form griddeddaily precipitation and temperature for the global land areas for the study period. It consists of disaggregating existinggridded monthly precipitation and temperature using a procedure that reproduces the intra-monthly statistics and spatialcorrelations derived and/or interpolated from daily observations. The procedure reproduces the observed sequences of dailyprecipitation and temperature, averaged over two degree grid cells, for cells where a minimum of seven observing stationsare available. For other grid cells, the temporal probability distributions of daily precipitation and temperature are reproduced. Thedaily precipitation and temperature sequences derived using this method will be used to simulate the daily water balance ofeach grid cell for the period 1979-93. The seasonal distribution of soil wetness in the upper layer did a good job ofrepresenting large-scale patterns and their seasonal cycle, e.g., the dryness of North Africa (Sahara), Arabia and CentralAsia, Central and West Australia, and the relative wetness of the tropical belt and the mid- latitude storm belt regions.The major differences between the derived fields and previously developed global surface soil wetness products include theuse of a specific simulation period as opposed to climatologies, the daily time step, and the use of a more sophisticatedatmosphere-land surface model. To address the second objective, a comparative analysis of the sensitivities of the Columbia River system and the Bostonwater supply system to climatic and demand uncertainties will be initiated. For each of these two systems, hydrologicmodels will be implemented to simulate reservoir system inflow, and water resource system models will be implemented tosimulate reservoir system performance. For the Columbia River system, algorithms will be implemented to assess thesensitivity of system performance to system demand and demand uncertainty. For the MWRA system, available models of thehydrology (water supply), as well as the reservoir system, will be used. An available a water demand model will be used,which reflects the interaction of climatic factors (e.g., temperature) and the effect of various water use sectors on waterdemand. This chain of models will be adapted to investigate the relative sensitivities of the MWRA system to climatic anddemand uncertainties. Comparison of the MWRA and Columbia River systems is expected to provide a useful contrast between awestern and eastern U.S. system with contrasting hydrologies, operating objectives, and demand trends. Publications and Presentations: Publications have been submitted on this project:View all 8 publications for this project Journal Articles: Journal Articles have been submitted on this project:View all 5 journal articles for this project Supplemental Keywords: water, global climate, vulnerability, hydrology, climate model, northeast, pacific northwest, Massachusetts, MA, Washington, WA, Region 1, Region 10, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, Northwest, Pacific Northwest, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Risk Assessment, EPA Region, environmental monitoring, water resources, regional hydrologic vulnerability, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, drinking water supplies, hydrologic models, Columbia River, climate models, vulnerability assessment, land and water resources, Region 10, Region 1, stochastic weather generators, temperature variables, climate variability, Global Climate Change Progress and Final Reports: 1996 1997 1998 1999 Final ReportProject Research Results Final Report 1999 1998 1997 1996 8 publications for this project 5 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change EPA Grant Number: R824802 Title: Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Wood, Eric F. Current Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Palmer, Richard , Wood, Eric F. Institution:University of Washington , Princeton University EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena Project Period: October 1, 1995 through March 31, 2000 Project Amount: $463,762 RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)Recipients Lists Research Category:Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration ,Global Climate Change ,Water ,Climate Change Description: The two major objectives of this project are: a) to develop an approach that resolves the present climate bias problem instochastic weather generators used to downscale GCM climate predictions; and b) to study the interaction of the climaticdependence of water supply and demand for water resource systems where municipal and industrial, agricultural water supply,and energy generation are the major system uses. The work in the first area has focused on off-line simulation of globalsoil moisture, which is required to produce GCM runs in which the effect of drift in land (and sea) surface conditions iseliminated. The general approach is to run the land surface scheme (VIC-2L) using observed precipitation and temperature at two degreelatitude by longitude spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. An approach will be developed to form griddeddaily precipitation and temperature for the global land areas for the study period. It consists of disaggregating existinggridded monthly precipitation and temperature using a procedure that reproduces the intra-monthly statistics and spatialcorrelations derived and/or interpolated from daily observations. The procedure reproduces the observed sequences of dailyprecipitation and temperature, averaged over two degree grid cells, for cells where a minimum of seven observing stationsare available. For other grid cells, the temporal probability distributions of daily precipitation and temperature are reproduced. Thedaily precipitation and temperature sequences derived using this method will be used to simulate the daily water balance ofeach grid cell for the period 1979-93. The seasonal distribution of soil wetness in the upper layer did a good job ofrepresenting large-scale patterns and their seasonal cycle, e.g., the dryness of North Africa (Sahara), Arabia and CentralAsia, Central and West Australia, and the relative wetness of the tropical belt and the mid- latitude storm belt regions.The major differences between the derived fields and previously developed global surface soil wetness products include theuse of a specific simulation period as opposed to climatologies, the daily time step, and the use of a more sophisticatedatmosphere-land surface model. To address the second objective, a comparative analysis of the sensitivities of the Columbia River system and the Bostonwater supply system to climatic and demand uncertainties will be initiated. For each of these two systems, hydrologicmodels will be implemented to simulate reservoir system inflow, and water resource system models will be implemented tosimulate reservoir system performance. For the Columbia River system, algorithms will be implemented to assess thesensitivity of system performance to system demand and demand uncertainty. For the MWRA system, available models of thehydrology (water supply), as well as the reservoir system, will be used. An available a water demand model will be used,which reflects the interaction of climatic factors (e.g., temperature) and the effect of various water use sectors on waterdemand. This chain of models will be adapted to investigate the relative sensitivities of the MWRA system to climatic anddemand uncertainties. Comparison of the MWRA and Columbia River systems is expected to provide a useful contrast between awestern and eastern U.S. system with contrasting hydrologies, operating objectives, and demand trends. Publications and Presentations: Publications have been submitted on this project:View all 8 publications for this project Journal Articles: Journal Articles have been submitted on this project:View all 5 journal articles for this project Supplemental Keywords: water, global climate, vulnerability, hydrology, climate model, northeast, pacific northwest, Massachusetts, MA, Washington, WA, Region 1, Region 10, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Geographic Area, Hydrology, climate change, Northwest, Pacific Northwest, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Risk Assessment, EPA Region, environmental monitoring, water resources, regional hydrologic vulnerability, energy generation, Boston Metropolitan Area, drinking water supplies, hydrologic models, Columbia River, climate models, vulnerability assessment, land and water resources, Region 10, Region 1, stochastic weather generators, temperature variables, climate variability, Global Climate Change Progress and Final Reports: 1996 1997 1998 1999 Final ReportProject Research Results Final Report 1999 1998 1997 1996 8 publications for this project 5 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change EPA Grant Number: R824802 Title: Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Wood, Eric F. Current Investigators: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. , Palmer, Richard , Wood, Eric F. Institution:University of Washington , Princeton University EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena Project Period: October 1, 1995 through March 31, 2000 Project Amount: $463,762 RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)Recipients Lists Research Category:Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration ,Global Climate Change ,Water ,Climate Change Description: The two major objectives of this project are: a) to develop an approach that resolves the present climate bias problem instochastic weather generators used to downscale GCM climate predictions; and b) to study the interaction of the climaticdependence of water supply and demand for water resource systems where municipal and industrial, agricultural water supply,and energy generation are the major system uses. The work in the first area has focused on off-line simulation of globalsoil moisture, which is required to produce GCM runs in which the effect of drift in land (and sea) surface conditions iseliminated. The general approach is to run the land surface scheme (VIC-2L) using observed precipitation and temperature at two degreelatitude by longitude spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. An approach will be developed to form griddeddaily precipitation and temperature for the global land areas for the study period. It consists of disaggregating existinggridded monthly precipitation and temperature using a procedure that reproduces the intra-monthly statistics and spatialcorrelations derived and/or interpolated from daily observations. The procedure reproduces the observed sequences of dailyprecipitation and temperature, averaged over two degree grid cells, for cells where a minimum of seven observing stationsare available. For other grid cells, the temporal probability distributions of daily precipitation and temperature are reproduced. Thedaily precipitation and temperature sequences derived using this method will be used to simulate the daily water balance ofeach grid cell for the period 1979-93. The seasonal distribution of soil wetness in the upper layer did a good job ofrepresenting large-scale patterns and their seasonal cycle, e.g., the dryness of North Africa (Sahara), Arabia and CentralAsia, Central and West Australia, and the relative wetness of the tropical belt and the mid- latitude storm belt regions.The major differences between the derived fields and previously developed global surface soil wetness products include theuse of a specific simulation period as opposed to climatologies, the daily time step, and the use of a more sophisticatedatmosphere-land surface model. To address the second objective, a comparative analysis of the sensitivities of the Columbia River system and the Bostonwater supply system to climatic and demand uncertainties will be initiated. For each of these two systems, hydrologicmodels will be implemented to simulate reservoir system inflow, and water resource system models will be implemented tosimulate reservoir system performance. For the Columbia River system, algorithms will be implemented to assess thesensitivity of system performance to system demand and demand uncertainty. For the MWRA system, available models of thehydrology (water supply), as well as the reservoir system, will be used. An available a water demand model will be used,which reflects the interaction of climatic factors (e.g., temperature) and the effect of various water use sectors on waterdemand. This chain of models will be adapted to investigate the relative sensitivities of the MWRA system to climatic anddemand uncertainties. Comparison of the MWRA and Columbia River systems is expected to provide a useful contrast between awestern and eastern U.S. system with contrasting hydrologies, operating objectives, and demand trends. |
| 英文关键词 | water;global climate;vulnerability;hydrology;climate model;northeast;pacific northwest;Massachusetts;MA;Washington;WA;Region 1;Region 10 |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 463762 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/73010 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dennis P. Lettenmaier.Improved Methods for Assessment of Hydrologic Vulnerability to Climate Change.1995. |
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