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| Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois | |
| 项目编号 | R827451 |
| Edwin E. Herricks | |
| 项目主持机构 | Dartmouth College |
| 开始日期 | 1999-10-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2002-09-01 |
| 英文摘要 | Project Research Results Final Report 2001 Progress Report 2000 Progress Report 31 publications for this project 4 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois EPA Grant Number: R827451 Title: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois Investigators: Herricks, Edwin E. , Donaghy, Kieran P. , Eheart, J. Wayland , Orland, Brian A Institution:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 Project Amount: $867,595 RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999)RFA Text | Recipients Lists Research Category:Global Climate Change ,Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration ,Water ,Ecosystems ,Climate Change Description: The primary objective of the proposed research is to complete an integrated assessment of multiple sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate using models, standard, and innovative analysis tools in this assessment. The impact assessment will focus on locations in the Mackinaw River watershed in Illinois. Five locations have been selected that provide sector dominance, defined sector competition, or general sector competition. The specific objectives are: 1) Develop sector specific responses to climate change, 2) Identify relationships between, and among, sectors at each site, and among all sites, 3) Apply the impact analysis paradigm to identify and quantify local impacts produced by climate change, 4) Identify mechanisms that produce an adaptive response to climate change while developing sector/system resilience to climate change impact, and 5) Integrate project results with a web-based decision support interface available at the University of Illinois.This project will identify and quantify the consequences of climate changeand climate variability on human and natural systems in the Mackinaw RiverBasin, Illinois. The Mackinaw River watershed of approximately 3100 km2 (1200mi2) is one of the highest quality ecosystems in Illinois with water qualityrated as excellent, but threatened. Identified threats include agricultural andurban centers. The Mackinaw has been the focus of recent, integrated managementactivity, which includes major involvement of the Nature Conservancy, theIllinois Department of Natural Resources, and local watershed groups. Theproposed research will focus on the sensitivity and vulnerability of local humanand natural systems to climate change, and the adaptive mechanisms that operatein response to impact threats. Climate change phenomena have been categorizedbased on a sense of the time scale over which a response can be expected and animpact assessed. The impact assessment paradigm selected will operate in thefollowing manner. In a local setting in the Mackinaw River watershed, systems(e.g. human environment) and sectors (e.g. agricultural, municipal), thatoperate in, or have influence on, the local setting will be identified. Foridentified sectors, an "elemental" analysis will be performed to identify howeach element responds to climate change phenomena (e.g. elements for theagricultural sector might be crop rotation, hybrid selection, etc.). Initialanalysis priority will be given to direct effect assessment, althoughidentification of chains of effect that are understood and quantified, orsupported by existing models, will also have a high priority. Sector specificanalysis will be completed, evaluating elemental response to five categories ofclimate change phenomena. The proposed analysis will develop site and sectorresponse spectra, which, in turn, will support a consequence and severitydetermination for an impact assessment. Although the chain of effect analysis isexpected to reveal cross and multiple sector relationships, the horizontalintegration across sectors proposed in this research will aggregate sectorresponse across systems. This aggregation will first consider sector pairs, andthen a comprehensive multiple sector integration. In this research initial vertical integration is based on specific climatesystem changes and layers of cross cutting analysis that are defined by impacttype. As a starting point for this cross cutting analysis, the following impacttypes are identified: 1) socioeconomic, 2) environmental, and 3) water resources(both quality and quantity). A second approach establishes single sector impactsas having the highest priority for resolution and then evaluates other sectorresponses based on criteria selected for the dominant sector. For example,placing agriculture as dominant, would change how impacts might be viewed foraquatic ecosystems, water resources, or municipal operations. The proposed research has three phases. These phases address separate workactivities, but are highly interconnected and will occur concurrently throughthe research project. Phase 1 will 1) identify climate change phenomena 2)identify, for selected locations in the Mackinaw River watershed, a sector bysector response to climate variability and, 3) the expected change in sectorelements, considered singly, and aggregated within and across sectors. Phase 2will 1) identify local impact of climate change with particular emphasis oneconomic, environmental, and social impact aggregations, where 2) impact will befirst be assessed at the element/sector level, then analyzed for sector pairsand multiple sector integration. Phase 3 will 1) implement a web-based system tosupport involvement from local collaborators and 2) provide an innovative use ofinformation technology to involve local community elements in impact analysis.The proposed research will identify local impact of climate change on a typical watershed in the Midwest that face a range of consequences from climate change. The systematic accounting for element, sector, and system level responses, starting at the local level, will provide an essential compliment to existing downscaling of GCC models. Further, the proposed horizontal and vertical integration, from an impact type focus, will provide important, sector specific information essential to the future successful management of climate change effects. This research also features an innovative use of information technology, the development of a decision support interface, which will provide a valuable adjunct to ongoing community-based management programs in the Mackinaw River watershed. These results will be of importance to local, State and Federal water resources planners and legislators in deciding how best to cope with uncertain anticipated climate changes in the Midwest. |
| 英文关键词 | land;soil;precipitation;ecological effects;indicators;scaling;habitat;preferences;public good;environmental assets;social science;ecology;hydrology;measurement methods |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 867595 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/73003 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Edwin E. Herricks.Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact in the Mackinaw River Watershed, Illinois.1999. |
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