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| Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment | |
| 项目编号 | R827453 |
| Mark A. Harwell | |
| 项目主持机构 | Carnegie Mellon University |
| 开始日期 | 1999-10-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2002-09-01 |
| 英文摘要 | Project Research Results Final Report 2002 Progress Report 2001 Progress Report 2000 Progress Report 17 publications for this project 9 journal articles for this project Related Information Research Grants P3: Student Design Competition Research Fellowships Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grantee Research Project Results Search Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment EPA Grant Number: R827453 Title: Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment Investigators: Harwell, Mark A. , Ault, Jerald S. , Cropper, Wendell P. , DeAngelis, Donald , Drum, Deborah , Gentile, John H. , Letson, David , Luo, Jiangang , Obeysekera, Jayantha , Ogden, John C. , Tosini, Steven , Wang, John , Wolfe, Willifred Current Investigators: Harwell, Mark A. , Ault, Jerald S. , Cropper, Wendell P. , Gentile, John H. , Letson, David , Lirman, Diego , Luo, Jiangang , Wang, John Institution:University of Miami , Center for Marine and Environmental Analyses , Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science , South Florida Water Management District , USGS Biological Resources Division Current Institution:University of Miami EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H Project Period: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2002 (Extended to September 30, 2003) Project Amount: $889,579 RFA: Integrated Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change (1999)RFA Text | Recipients Lists Research Category:Global Climate Change ,Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration ,Water ,Ecosystems ,Climate Change Description: The objective of the proposed study is to examine, using previously developed state-of-the-science simulation models, the potential effects of climate change scenarios on South Florida regional environment. Effects of the selected climate change stressors will be assessed on the following physical, ecological, and societal systems: a) regional surface and groundwater hydrology; b) freshwater runoff into coastal estuaries and associated salinity changes; c) seagrass, hardbottom, and mangrove community productivity and distributions; d) estuarine fish and invertebrate populations; e) economics of recreational fishing; f) wetlands hydroperiod in the Everglades; g) wading bird populations and other Everglades ecological attributes; h) urban and agricultural water supply; and I) urban flood control. This diverse suite of effects endpoints provides an integrated perspective on relevant risks to humans and the environment.The proposed study will be organized using the EPA ecological risk assessmentframework. This framework was substantially developed under the leadership oftwo CMEA co-PIs (Harwell and Gentile 1992; Gentile et al. 1993), and CMEA hasconducted several projects to implement the ecological risk framework to addressreal-world problems (e.g., the comparative ecological risk assessment of spillsof fuels in Tampa Bay [Harwell et al. 1995; Ault et al. 1995]). To assessclimate change risks in South Florida, we have selected a series of significantecological/societal endpoints that can be analyzed with simulation models thathave already been developed by the co-PIs at CMEA, SFWMD, and USGS-BRD. Themodels include the CMEA Biscayne Bay hydrodynamic model, the CMEA Biscayne BaySeascape model (including seagrass, hardbottom, and mangrove communities), theCMEA Fish/Shrimp Community Dynamics Model of recreationally important fish andinvertebrate species, the South Florida Water Management District's SouthFlorida Water Management Model (SFWMM), and the wading bird components of theAcross Trophic Level System Simulation model (ATLSS). Based on the ecorisk framework, the following elements will be conducted inthe proposed study: 1) A series of climate change stressor scenarios will bedeveloped; this will be done by using a series of available GCM model outputs,drawing on the extensive literature on climate change (e.g., Hougton et al.1990), and convening a workshop of experts to develop scenarios (discussedbelow). 2) The suite of climatic scenarios will be input to the SFWMM to producepredictions of the resulting hydrologic conditions for the region. 3) The outputfrom the SFWMM will be used to drive the Biscayne Bay hydrodynamic model. 4) TheBiscayne Bay hydrodynamic model will simulate salinity changes for eachscenario. 5) The salinity regime will be input to the Biscayne Bay Seascapemodel to predict changes in the productivity and distribution of seagrass,hardbottom, and mangrove communities. 6) The results for each scenario from theSeascape model and from the hydrodynamic model will be used to drive thetrophodynamics model. 7) The results from the trophodynamics model will be usedto drive the assessment of effects on recreational fishing in the Biscayne Bay - Florida Keys area. 8) The results from the SFWMM model will also drive the ATLSS model to predict changes in wading bird populations. 9) The results from the ATLSS model will be used to assess the societal effects of altered wading bird populations. 10) The results from the SFWMM will also be used to assess the economic effects of changes in water supply and flood control. 11) Finally,based on all of these stressor-effects analyses, the research team will preparean overall risk assessment on the ecological and societal risks from climatechange in South Florida, including an assessment of the implications of therestructuring of the C&SF on these risks, as well as an assessment of majorsensitivities and uncertainties in the analyses.The proposed study will produce a series of scientific articles that delineatethe risk assessment methodology used for regional-scale implications of climatechange, describe the potential risks to the ecological and societal systems ofSouth Florida, and explore the range of vulnerabilities of the region to climatechange, including explicit consideration of the present state of uncertaintythat exists about the specific regional physical stressors that would resultfrom global climate change. The study will also constitute a prototype for fullyintegrated assessments that address all physical, ecological, and societalsystems in a region, incorporating the "horizontal" (across sectors, rangingfrom freshwater and estuarine ecosystems to urban systems, and reflectingmultiple levels of organization) and "vertical" (from climate change stressorsthrough hydrological, ecological, and societal effects) integration called forin the EPA request for application. Issues that will be addressed in the studyinclude: 1) an improved understanding of the current responses of theenvironmental and human systems to climate variability in South Florida acrossecosystem types and across different time scales of variability; 2) explorationof how climate-induced changes in physical stressors would exacerbate orameliorate those system responses to variability; 3) suggestions of relativevulnerabilities and needed coping management options; and 4) identification ofimportant uncertainties that would suggest priorities for research and furtheranalyses. Moreover, these results of the proposed study are expected to haveparticular importance to the design of the new C&SF system and/or itsoperational management schedules, issues that are especially timely and criticalto address at this time. The vulnerability studies will highlight the relativerisks to various parts of the ecological and societal systems of the region,potentially allowing assignment of priorities for risk reduction strategies.Through the partnership with SFWMD and its extensive communications network(discussed below), the results will be broadly disseminated to decision makers,stakeholders, and the general public. |
| 英文关键词 | ecological risk assessment;ecological effects;societal effects;coastal ecosystems;wetlands ecosystems;recreational fisheries;ecological restoration;simulation models;coupled biophysical models. |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 889579 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/73002 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mark A. Harwell.Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change on the South Florida Environment.1999. |
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