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| A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios | |
| 项目编号 | R834196 |
| Thorsten Wagener | |
| 项目主持机构 | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| 开始日期 | 2009-08-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2012-07-01 |
| 英文摘要 | To provide probabilistic projections of indicators of watershed services for aquaticecosystems and human uses in US headwaters under climate change scenarios through [1]Characterizing changes to (freshwater flow and temperature dependent) indicators ofwatershed services under climate change scenarios in a probabilistic framework, [2] Identifyingmain controls (and uncertainties) on these indicators, [3] Estimation of resulting changes towatershed!scale ecosystem services for selected headwater basins in different US regions.A general Bayesian framework – combining mechanistic watershed models andglobal sensitivity analysis tools – builds on and extends tools and methods of previousNOAA/NWS and NSF grants: (1) Assimilate local and regional information on watershed physicalcharacteristics and response behavior into an ensemble of mechanistic models in a Bayesianframework, (2) Dynamically downscale climate change scenarios for different US headwatersover different time scales as model forcing and develop probabilistic hydrologic responsescenarios (incl. stream flow and temperature) for these watersheds, (3) Characterize changes towatershed!scale services for aquatic ecosystem by extracting probability distributions ofsignificant indicators, and by understanding their controls through global sensitivity analysis. (4)Use the probabilistic indices predictions to project changes to headwater ecosystem services indifferent regions of the US to understand the sensitivity of key water quality and ecosystemmanagement targets to climate change.Successful execution of this project would significantly advance our ability tosimulate the impact of climate change on US headwater ecosystem services, and therefore onthe future of aquatic ecosystems and the sustainability of human water uses. |
| 英文关键词 | Regionalization;Predictions in Ungauged Basins;Uncertainty Analysis, |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 239782 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/72111 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thorsten Wagener.A Probabilistic Framework for Projections of Watershed Services in US Headwaters under Climate Change Scenarios.2009. |
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