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| Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity | |
| 项目编号 | R834195 |
| Jason Knouft | |
| 项目主持机构 | Resources for the Future |
| 开始日期 | 2009-08-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2011-07-01 |
| 英文摘要 | The primary objective of this research is to predict theimpacts of climate change on aquatic biodiversity in United States river drainages.Global climate models will be integrated with a landscape hydrologic model and anecological niche modeling algorithm to test three general hypotheses: 1) Climate data,when integrated with landscape hydrologic models, can accurately predict variation incurrent and future flow regimes in United States river drainages; 2) Ecological nichemodeling algorithms, when used in conjunction with hydrologic model outputs andspecies distribution data, can accurately predict current and future distributions ofaquatic taxa; and 3) Predicted changes in climate will differentially impact aquatic taxa,with some species experiencing decreases in future habitat availability while otherspecies experience increases in the amount of available habitat.The objectives of this research will be achieved byintegrating data derived from three regionally downscaled global climate models withthe landscape-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model topredict changes in flow characteristics and water temperatures in United States riverdrainages based on climate change scenarios. These hydrologic data will then be usedto predict the potential impacts of climate change on distributions of a variety oftaxonomic groups, including fishes, crayfishes, and mollusks, in Illinois and Alabamausing a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (Maxent). Illinois andAlabama support relatively high levels of biodiversity and threatened species and thereis also an unusually robust amount of species locality data available for these states. Inthis study, these areas will serve as models to understand the potential impacts ofclimate change on aquatic communities in the coming decades. The impact of climatechange on fishes will be similarly assessed in five major river drainages in differentregions of the United States. The predicted changes in hydrologic characteristics ineach region will be integrated with freshwater fish species distribution data to predict theresponse of these species to changes in climate and assess potential regionaldifferences in biodiversity impacts based on climate change scenarios.The results of this research will provide a broad taxonomicand regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on aquatic species in theUnited States by producing predictions of current and future habitat quality for aquatictaxa based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results will address keyquestions detailed in the program announcement including: 1) What are the potentialimpacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in different regions of the UnitedStates, and how will these changes affect aquatic ecosystems; and 2) How will climatechange influence the availability of suitable aquatic habitat for vulnerable species? |
| 英文关键词 | watersheds;ecology;hydrology;GIS;geography, |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 246147 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/72110 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jason Knouft.Combining Climate Model Predictions, Hydrological Modeling, and Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms to Predict the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Biodiversity.2009. |
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