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| Impact of Climate Change and Variability on the Nation's Water Quality andEcosystem State | |
| 项目编号 | R834187 |
| Charles J. V枚r枚smarty | |
| 项目主持机构 | Texas A & M University,University of Nevada - Reno,University of Southern California,Utah State University |
| 开始日期 | 2009-10-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2012-09-01 |
| 英文摘要 | To expand an existing modeling framework tointegrate state-of-the-art regional climate projections with hydrology and aquatic process models,to assess how strongly forecast climate change and variability propagate through the Nation'swaterways and thus alter emergence, distribution, severity, and timing of water quality problems.(ii) To evaluate the extent to which selected attributes of aquatic ecosystem state (flow-mediatedhabitat, habitat quality, aquatic community structure) are made vulnerable to projected regionalclimate change across the continental U.S. (iii) To present to agency planners a blueprint forsystematic monitoring of the Nation's vulnerable and impaired waterways, identifying regionswhose habitats are projected to be most at risk from the combined effects of climate and otherforcings. Hypotheses associated with the first two objectives posit that the vulnerability ofwaterways to climate-induced impairments in water quality and aquatic ecosystem state will bedictated by changes in the extremes of hydrologic response associated with climate change(low/high flow frequencies, regime shifts) and will emerge synergistically with other non-climatestressors that will continue to affect systems well into the future.The work will systematically address the hypotheses by uniting aninterdisciplinary science team to jointly develop data sets and modules to be incorporated into anexistingFramework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System (FrAMES). The team will designa series of numerical experiments based on multi-model ensemble climate forecasts downscaledto regional domains in the continental U.S. Assessments will then be made using models of thephysical (hydrology, water temperature), biogeochemical (DO, nutrients, DOC, sediment),habitat (quantity/quality, loss, disturbance frequency), and biological endpoints (aquatic communitystructure) to contrast current and future conditions across the Nation's inland waterways.Given the pivotal role of water in climate, pollution management andecosystem health, the impacts of this project are anticipated to go well beyond those of itsscience alone. Better understanding of national and regional-scale interactions between climatechange and other environmental stressors like land use change and intensification, agriculturalwater policy, and hydraulic engineering, is critical for developing response strategies to thechallenge of climate change. We expect to find that sensitivities to climate change in the form ofmore extreme temperatures, precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff events, are elicited through acascade of physical and biotic processes, and it is insufficient to view these in isolation. Thisconstitutes an important management principal in the context of a changing climate system,which will be shared with decision makers as a product of our work. |
| 英文关键词 | regionalization;national;climate change and variability;hydrology, ecosystem;aquatic habitat;indicators;water quality;risk assessment;climate models, |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 799554 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/71994 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Charles J. V枚r枚smarty.Impact of Climate Change and Variability on the Nation's Water Quality andEcosystem State.2009. |
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