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| [Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease | |
| 项目编号 | R834547 |
| Leonard Bielory | |
| 项目主持机构 | University of Connecticut,Abt Associates |
| 开始日期 | 2010-04-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2012-03-01 |
| 英文摘要 | Global change affects allergic airway disease (AAD)through changes in exposure to pollen-associated allergens and changesin sensitivity to the allergens. This project proposes to bettercharacterize the mechanisms involved. Investigators will (1) Develop aregional atmospheric dynamic model of pollen production, distributionand dispersion; (2) Develop a population exposure and dose model forestimating pollen exposures (3) Generate pollen phenology from theexisting 25 years database from the existing certified 74 U.S. pollencounting stations; (4) Use the regional model to determine how climatechange over the next 50 years will change pollen production,distribution, dispersion, and subsequently exposures; and (5) Determinethe impact of climate change on pollen allergenicity (allergen content)of various species of plants (grasses, weeds, and trees) using plantchamber and transects with in vitro (immunological, molecular plantgenomics) and in vivo (human skin testing) techniques.Several of the above investigators have developed a novel dynamicpollen emission and dispersion model for New Jersey and the Northeastregion and applied it to existing data from our pollen counting station.Allergenic species-specific emission rates exceeding 3000 grains/m2 wereestimated in some locations, and strong correlations were observedbetween predicted pollen emission rates and measured pollen counts. Thismodeling demonstrated that emissions and transport of different types ofpollen were well simulated for the eastern US. Alternative formulationsfor modeling pollen transport (HYSPLIT and CMAQ) showed close agreement.Significant levels of pollen are transported over tens of kilometers ofdistance, depending on the height of release, pollen type, andmeteorological conditions.Based on these data and preliminary studies, this proposal will becomposed of a multiscale source-to-dose analysis approach for assessingthe exposure interactions of environmental and biological systems. Oncethe entire modeling system is validated, it will run for two 10-yearperiods, one centered 25 years from the present and one 50 years fromthe present. This will allow for the consideration of interannualvariability and will not be dependent on the weather of one particularyear. In addition, the assessment of climate change impact onallergenicity of several species of plants (grasses, weeds and trees)through the multiscale approach as presented in this proposal willprovide a virtual window of allergenic pollen production and dispersionoccurring in the near future. |
| 英文关键词 | allergens; exposure; climate change; health effects;dose-response, |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;08 - 地球科学 |
| 资助机构 | US-EPA |
| 项目经费 | 900000 |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/71840 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leonard Bielory.[Climate Change and Allergic Airway Disease] Observational,Laboratory, and Modeling Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change onAllergic Airway Disease.2010. |
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