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| The effects of climate change on parasites: toward an integrative and predictive approach | |
| 项目编号 | ANR-11-JSV7-0010 |
| Madame Géraldine LOOT | |
| 项目主持机构 | CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE - DELEGATION REGIONALE MIDI-PYRENEES |
| 开始日期 | 2012-03-01 |
| 结束日期 | 2016-3-01 |
| 英文摘要 | A common wisdom holds that parasites will spread extensively, and will expand their geographic range northward as climate will go warmer. Although expansion range of parasites might greatly affect wildlife, predictions concerning animals and plants parasites are mostly conceptual. Moreover, the association between climate and parasite spread has recently been questioned. It has been argued (i) that parasites would undergo range shifts (and even range restriction) rather than range expansion and (ii) that many non-climatic factors may affect, and even overshadow, the effects of the climate. Such controversy has important fundamental and societal implications. Accordingly, the next generation of model-based predictions concerning climate change and parasites obviously need to consider all the processes that link parasites to their environment. Including non-climatic factors in predictive models is an efficient way to obtain a balanced and objective view of the risk posed by climate change on parasites spread. INCLIMPAR will contribute to fill the gap between the controversy around the association climate-parasite spread and societal needs. In a first part (Tasks 2-5), we will use a specific host-parasite interaction (the ectoparasite Tracheliastes polycolpus and its fish host Leuciscus leuciscus) to identify climatic and non-climatic factors that may affect parasite colonization. Combining empirical observations, experimental works and molecular tools, we will evaluate the strength of the following potential barriers to T. polycolpus colonization: (i) The dispersal ability of T. polycolpus (Is T. polycolpus able to freely disperse from one site to another?) (ii) The abiotic requirement of T. polycolpus (What are the environmental factors that may restrain T. polycolpus expansion range?) (iii) The ability of T. polycolpus to shift on new hosts species (If T. polycolpus arrives in a new site in which L. leuciscus is absent, will it be able to shift on another host species?) (iv) The ability of T. polycolpus to adapt to foreign L. leuciscus genotypes (If T. polycolpus arrives in a new site in which L. leuciscus is naturally present, does local adaptation may restrain T. polycolpus to colonize this foreign genotype of L. Leuciscus?) In a second part (Task 6) we will develop a predictive statistical framework that would consider conjointly the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on parasite spread under several climatic scenarios. This integrative framework will aim at improving the forecasting of the effect of climate change on the future geographic range of T. polycolpus. Finally, in a third part (Task 7) we will generalise our findings by performing a meta-analysis of the existing literature to quantify numerically changes in parasite geographic range in the last decades (over taxon and ecosystem types). This meta-analysis as well as simulations will be used to also assess the relative effects of various biological and environmental variables (climatic and human-related) on those changes in parasite geographic range. |
| 资助机构 | FR-ANR |
| 项目经费 | 244939 |
| 项目类型 | JCJC - SVSE 7 - Biodiversité, évolution, écologie et agronomie (JCJC SVSE 7) 2011 |
| URL | http://www.agence-nationale-recherche.fr/en/anr-funded-project/?solr=run&tx_lwmsuivibilan_pi2%5BCODE%5D=ANR-11-JSV7-0010 |
| 国家 | FR |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/70859 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Madame Géraldine LOOT.The effects of climate change on parasites: toward an integrative and predictive approach.2012. |
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