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| LTREB: Instability, contingency, and global change in a terrestrial food chain | |
| 项目编号 | 1453041 |
| John Vucetich | |
| 项目主持机构 | Michigan Technological University |
| 开始日期 | 2015-03-15 |
| 结束日期 | 2020-02-29 |
| 英文摘要 | Wolves and moose on Isle Royale National Park have fluctuated in abundance over the past 50 or more years, epitomizing the natural dynamics of the nation's most endangered, charismatic, and controversial wildlife. This project continues the longest study of predators and their prey in the world to develop a new quantitative framework to determine whether these fluctuations result from predictable laws of nature or from unexpected events that leave lasting legacies. The results will have broad implications for conserving many of the nation's wildlife and ecosystems. A forthcoming decision about the management of Isle Royale wolves is expected to set precedence for many protected areas with respect to management of key predators. This project will provide the data needed to make an appropriate decision and to understand the resulting consequences. The investigators have experience testifying before Congress, as well as to local and state agencies, to inform responsible resource management. Wise management decisions have become the focus of broad public concern as well, and results from this project will be communicated to the public through diverse media including webpages, blogs and other social media, printed media, volunteer programs, internships, public presentations, and films. Data collected as part of this project are broadly disseminated and widely used. Significant numbers of students and the public will continue to participate in the project, learning about the scientific process and wildlife conservation. The project will evaluate the extent to which population fluctuations can be explained by series of random events characterized by legacy effects that are comparable in length to the waiting time between such events and the disparate nature of individual events in the series. The field methods involve estimation and analysis of parameters related to the demography, genetics, and life history of the wolf and moose populations. New statistical models will be constructed based on first principles of predator-prey theory and on comparisons between laws-of-nature models and statistical models accounting only for the influence of a few major historically contingent events such as novel disease outbreaks, severe winters, or a genetic rescue event. The analytical framework will comprise a synthesis of several important phenomena in ecology: reddened spectra, weak density dependence, tipping points, legacy effects, synergistic and antagonistic interactions, and ecological surprises. Results will address the long-standing ecological controversy of whether ecological phenomena are best understood as a series of contingent effects or as the result of laws of nature. The analytical framework produced will explain why ecological 'surprises' are common and why populations exhibit weak density dependence over long periods of time. |
| 学科分类 | 09 - 环境科学;0903 - 环境生物学 |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | 450000 |
| 项目类型 | Standard Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/70020 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John Vucetich.LTREB: Instability, contingency, and global change in a terrestrial food chain.2015. |
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