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DOI | 10.1111/risa.12688 |
Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores | |
Coleman, Margaret E.; Marks, Harry M.; Bartrand, Timothy A.; Donahue, Darrell W.; Hines, Stephanie A.; Comer, Jason E.; Taft, Sarah C. | |
发表日期 | 2017-05-01 |
ISSN | 0272-4332 |
卷号 | 37期号:5页码:943-957 |
英文摘要 | Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed use different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple-dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this article. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit data sets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response data sets specifically designed to assess potential multiple-dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this article to develop the best-fitting survival model for exposure of rabbits to multiple aerosol doses of B. anthracis spores should have broad applicability to other host-pathogen systems and dosing schedules because the empirical modeling approach is based upon pathogen-specific empirically-derived parameters. |
英文关键词 | Hazard function;survival analysis;time and dose dependency |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403450300010 |
来源期刊 | RISK ANALYSIS |
来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/62606 |
作者单位 | US EPA, Natl Homeland Secur Res Ctr, 26 West Martin Luther King Dr, Cincinnati, OH 45268 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Coleman, Margaret E.,Marks, Harry M.,Bartrand, Timothy A.,et al. Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores[J]. 美国环保署,2017,37(5):943-957. |
APA | Coleman, Margaret E..,Marks, Harry M..,Bartrand, Timothy A..,Donahue, Darrell W..,Hines, Stephanie A..,...&Taft, Sarah C..(2017).Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.RISK ANALYSIS,37(5),943-957. |
MLA | Coleman, Margaret E.,et al."Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores".RISK ANALYSIS 37.5(2017):943-957. |
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