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DOI10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016
Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data
Kioutsioukis, Ioannis1,2; Im, Ulas3; Solazzo, Efisio2; Bianconi, Roberto4; Badia, Alba5; Balzarini, Alessandra6; Baro, Rocio12; Bellasio, Roberto4; Brunner, Dominik7; Chemel, Charles8; Curci, Gabriele9,10; van der Gon, Hugo Denier11; Flemming, Johannes13; Forkel, Renate14; Giordano, Lea7; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro12; Hirtl, Marcus15; Jorba, Oriol5; Manders-Groot, Astrid11; Neal, Lucy16; Perez, Juan L.17; Pirovano, Guidio6; Jose, Roberto San16; Savage, Nicholas15; Schroder, Wolfram18; Sokhi, Ranjeet S.8; Syrakov, Dimiter19; Tuccella, Paolo9,10; Werhahn, Johannes14; Wolke, Ralf18; Hogrefe, Christian20; Galmarini, Stefano2
发表日期2016-12-20
ISSN1680-7316
卷号16期号:24页码:15629-15652
英文摘要

Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O-3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O-3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60% of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31% compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O-3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy and diversity in the ensembles. The skill enhancement was superior using the weighting scheme, but the training period required to acquire representative weights was longer compared to the sub-selecting schemes. Further development of the method is discussed in the conclusion.


语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000391555500001
来源期刊ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/62051
作者单位1.Univ Patras, Dept Phys, Univ Campus, Patras 26504, Greece;
2.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Directorate Energy Transport & Climate Air & Clim, Ispra, VA, Italy;
3.Aarhus Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Roskilde, Denmark;
4.Enviroware Srl, Concorezzo, MB, Italy;
5.BSC CNS, Earth Sci Dept, Barcelona, Spain;
6.RSE SpA, Milan, Italy;
7.Empa, Lab Air Pollut & Environm Technol, Dubendorf, Switzerland;
8.Univ Hertfordshire, Ctr Atmospher & Instrumentat Res, Coll Lane, Hatfield AL10 9AB, Herts, England;
9.Univ Aquila, Dept Phys & Chem Sci, Laquila, Italy;
10.Univ Aquila, Ctr Excellence Forecast Severe Weather CETEMPS, Laquila, Italy;
11.Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands;
12.Univ Murcia, Dept Phys, Phys Earth, Campus Espinardo,Ed CIOyN, E-30100 Murcia, Spain;
13.ECMWF, Shinfield Pk, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England;
14.KIT, IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany;
15.ZAMG, Zentralanstalt Meteorol & Geodynam, A-1190 Vienna, Austria;
16.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England;
17.Tech Univ Madrid, Sch Comp Sci, Environm Software & Modelling Grp, Campus Montegancedo Boadilla del Monte, Madrid 28660, Spain;
18.Leibniz Inst Tropospher Res, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;
19.Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, 66 Tzarigradsko Shaussee Blvd, BU-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria;
20.Environm Protect Agcy, Atmospher Modelling & Anal Div, Res Triangle Pk, NC USA
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Kioutsioukis, Ioannis,Im, Ulas,Solazzo, Efisio,et al. Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data[J]. 美国环保署,2016,16(24):15629-15652.
APA Kioutsioukis, Ioannis.,Im, Ulas.,Solazzo, Efisio.,Bianconi, Roberto.,Badia, Alba.,...&Galmarini, Stefano.(2016).Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,16(24),15629-15652.
MLA Kioutsioukis, Ioannis,et al."Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 16.24(2016):15629-15652.
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