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DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.011
Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis
Veysey, Jason1; Octaviano, Claudia2,3; Calvin, Katherine4; Martinez, Sara Herreras5; Kitous, Alban6; McFarland, James7; van der Zwaan, Bob8,9,10
发表日期2016-05-01
ISSN0140-9883
卷号56页码:587-599
英文摘要

Mexico's climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets-30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico's emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country. (C) 2016 Battelle Memorial Institute and The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.


英文关键词Climate policy;Mexico;Modeling;Mitigation;Mitigation pathway
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000378446600052
来源期刊ENERGY ECONOMICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/61748
作者单位1.Stockholm Environm Inst, 11 Curtis Ave, Somerville, MA 02144 USA;
2.MA Inst Technol, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA USA;
3.Mario Molina Ctr Strateg Studies Energy & Environ, Mexico City, DF, Mexico;
4.Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Ct,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA;
5.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands;
6.European Commiss, DG Joint Res Ctr JRC, IPTS, Unit Econ Climate Change Energy & Transport J1, Edificio Expo,C Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain;
7.US EPA, USEPA Headquarters, William Jefferson Clinton Bldg,1200 Penn Ave NW, Washington, DC 20460 USA;
8.Energy Res Ctr Netherlands ECN, Policy Studies, Radarweg 60, NL-1043 NT Amsterdam, Netherlands;
9.Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Bologna, Italy;
10.Univ Amsterdam, Fac Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Veysey, Jason,Octaviano, Claudia,Calvin, Katherine,et al. Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis[J]. 美国环保署,2016,56:587-599.
APA Veysey, Jason.,Octaviano, Claudia.,Calvin, Katherine.,Martinez, Sara Herreras.,Kitous, Alban.,...&van der Zwaan, Bob.(2016).Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis.ENERGY ECONOMICS,56,587-599.
MLA Veysey, Jason,et al."Pathways to Mexico's climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis".ENERGY ECONOMICS 56(2016):587-599.
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