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DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008
Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach
Dodder, Rebecca S.1; Kaplan, P. Ozge1; Elobeid, Amani2; Tokgoz, Simla3; Secchi, Silvia4; Kurkalova, Lyubov A.5,6
发表日期2015-09-01
ISSN0140-9883
卷号51页码:77-87
英文摘要

The accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10-20 years and the implications for energy, agriculture, and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agriculture-energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, we can compare the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons show biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shift the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowers total ethanol production and raises ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices lead to lower CO2 emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario results in the highest CO2 trajectory relative to the baseline. Published by Elsevier B.V.


英文关键词Biofuel;Ethanol;Agriculture;Natural gas;Crude oil;Cellulosic;Carbon dioxide
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000364439500008
来源期刊ENERGY ECONOMICS
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/61205
作者单位1.US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Off Res & Dev, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA;
2.Iowa State Univ, Ctr Agr & Rural Dev, Ames, IA 50011 USA;
3.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA;
4.So Illinois Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Resources, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA;
5.N Carolina Agr & Tech State Univ, Dept Econ, Greensboro, NC 27411 USA;
6.N Carolina Agr & Tech State Univ, Dept Energy & Environm Syst, Greensboro, NC 27411 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Dodder, Rebecca S.,Kaplan, P. Ozge,Elobeid, Amani,et al. Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach[J]. 美国环保署,2015,51:77-87.
APA Dodder, Rebecca S.,Kaplan, P. Ozge,Elobeid, Amani,Tokgoz, Simla,Secchi, Silvia,&Kurkalova, Lyubov A..(2015).Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach.ENERGY ECONOMICS,51,77-87.
MLA Dodder, Rebecca S.,et al."Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach".ENERGY ECONOMICS 51(2015):77-87.
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