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DOI | 10.1890/12-1166.1 |
Hidden Markov models for estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards | |
Etterson, Matthew A. | |
发表日期 | 2013-12-01 |
ISSN | 1051-0761 |
卷号 | 23期号:8页码:1915-1925 |
英文摘要 | Carcass searches are a common method for studying the risk of anthropogenic hazards to wildlife, including nontarget poisoning and collisions with anthropogenic structures. Typically, numbers of carcasses found must be corrected for scavenging rates and imperfect detection. Parameters for these processes (scavenging and detection) are often estimated using carcass distribution trials in which researchers place carcasses in the field at known times and locations. In this manuscript I develop a variety of estimators based on multi-event or hidden Markov models for use under different experimental conditions. I apply the estimators to two case studies of avian mortality, one from pesticide exposure and another at wind turbines. The proposed framework for mortality estimation points to a unified framework for estimation of scavenging rates and searcher efficiency in a single trial and also allows estimation based only on accidental kills, obviating the need for carcass distribution trials. Results of the case studies show wide variation in the performance of different estimators, but even wider confidence intervals around estimates of the numbers of animals killed, which are the direct result of small sample size in the carcass distribution trials employed. These results also highlight the importance of a well-formed hypothesis about the temporal nature of mortality at the focal hazard under study. |
英文关键词 | anthropogenic hazards;avian mortality;carbofuran;carcass searches;competing risks;granular insecticide;hidden Markov models;scavenging;searcher efficiency;wind turbine |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000328568400013 |
来源期刊 | ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/59675 |
作者单位 | (1)US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Midcontinent Ecol Div, Duluth, MN 55804 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Etterson, Matthew A.. Hidden Markov models for estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards[J]. 美国环保署,2013,23(8):1915-1925. |
APA | Etterson, Matthew A..(2013).Hidden Markov models for estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards.ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,23(8),1915-1925. |
MLA | Etterson, Matthew A.."Hidden Markov models for estimating animal mortality from anthropogenic hazards".ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 23.8(2013):1915-1925. |
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