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DOI | 10.1289/EHP507 |
Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010 | |
Fann, Neal1; Kim, Sun-Young2,3; Olives, Casey3; Sheppard, Lianne3,4 | |
发表日期 | 2017-09-01 |
ISSN | 0091-6765 |
卷号 | 125期号:9 |
英文摘要 | BACKGROUND: PM2.5 precursor emissions have declined over the course of several decades, following the implementation of local, state, and federal air quality policies. Estimating the corresponding change in population exposure and PM2.5-attributable risk of death prior to the year 2000 is made difficult by the lack of PM2.5 monitoring data. OBJECTIVES: We used a new technique to estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations, and estimated the effects of changes in PM2.5 population exposures on mortality in adults (age >= 30 y), and on life expectancy at birth, in the contiguous United States during 1980-2010. METHODS: We estimated annual mean county-level PM2.5 concentrations in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using universal kriging incorporating geographic variables. County-level death rates and national life tables for each year were obtained from the U.S. Census and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used log-linear and nonlinear concentration-response coefficients from previous studies to estimate changes in the numbers of deaths and in life years and life expectancy at birth, attributable to changes in PM2.5. RESULTS: Between 1980 and 2010, population-weighted PM2.5 exposures fell by about half, and the estimated number of excess deaths declined by about a third. The States of California, Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia had some of the largest estimated reductions in PM2.5-attributable deaths. Relative to a counterfactual population with exposures held constant at 1980 levels, we estimated that people born in 2050 would experience an similar to 1-y increase in life expectancy at birth, and that there would be a cumulative gain of 4.4 million life years among adults >= 30 y of age. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates suggest that declines in PM2.5 exposures between 1980 and 2010 have benefitted public health. |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413792800013 |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/59520 |
作者单位 | 1.US EPA, Off Air Qual Planning & Stand, Res Triangle Pk, NC USA; 2.Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, Seoul, South Korea; 3.Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Univ Washington, Dept Biostat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fann, Neal,Kim, Sun-Young,Olives, Casey,et al. Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010[J]. 美国环保署,2017,125(9). |
APA | Fann, Neal,Kim, Sun-Young,Olives, Casey,&Sheppard, Lianne.(2017).Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(9). |
MLA | Fann, Neal,et al."Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining PM2.5 Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980-2010".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.9(2017). |
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