气候变化领域集成服务门户

We describe a new way to develop evidence of causes of biological effects using field-based species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) and show how evidence can be compared when genera or effect endpoints are different among potentially causal agents. To evaluate if a cause is sufficient to elicit an effect, we developed a general SSD. A cause was judged sufficient if the intensity of the stressor at the site predicted the observed proportion of extirpation. To evaluate if an effect is specific to a cause, we developed site-specific SSDs using field-based effect levels of genera occurring in the locality of the study. An effect was judged specific to a cause if susceptible genera were absent and tolerant genera were present. Field-based SSDs were used to assess nutrients and conductivity. Other associations were used to assess metals, sediment, dissolved oxygen, and temperature. A case study at Pigeon Roost Creek, Tennessee, USA, illustrates how the SSDs are used to infer multiple causes. A weight-of-evidence analysis identified nutrients and sediment as probable causes but another unidentified agent appears to be acting as well. This inferential approach has broad application and the causal models for conductivity, nutrients, and deposited sediment can be used at other locations.