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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00182.1 |
Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part I: Experimental Design and Isolation of Thermodynamic Effects | |
Mallard, Megan S.1; Lackmann, Gary M.1; Aiyyer, Anantha1; Hill, Kevin2 | |
发表日期 | 2013-07-01 |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
卷号 | 26期号:13页码:4876-4893 |
英文摘要 | The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a downscaling experiment to simulate a portion of the Atlantic hurricane season both in present-day conditions and with modifications to include future thermodynamic changes.Temperature and moisture changes are derived from an ensemble of climate simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A1B scenario and added to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions, leaving horizontal temperature gradients and vertical wind shear unaltered. This method of downscaling excludes future changes in shear and incipient disturbances, thereby isolating the thermodynamic component of climate change and its effect on tropical cyclone (TC) activity.The North Atlantic basin is simulated with 18- and 6-km grid spacing, and a four-member physics ensemble is composed by varying microphysical and boundary layer parameterization schemes. This ensemble is used in monthly simulations during an active (2005) and inactive (2009) season, and the simulations are able to capture the change in activity between the different years. TC frequency is better reproduced with use of 6-km grid spacing and explicitly simulated convection, relative to simulations with 18-km grid spacing. A detailed comparison of present-day and future ensemble results is provided in a companion study. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclones;Climate change;Hurricanes;typhoons;General circulation models;Mesoscale models |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000321259000030 |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/58854 |
作者单位 | 1.N Carolina State Univ, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 2.AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mallard, Megan S.,Lackmann, Gary M.,Aiyyer, Anantha,et al. Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part I: Experimental Design and Isolation of Thermodynamic Effects[J]. 美国环保署,2013,26(13):4876-4893. |
APA | Mallard, Megan S.,Lackmann, Gary M.,Aiyyer, Anantha,&Hill, Kevin.(2013).Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part I: Experimental Design and Isolation of Thermodynamic Effects.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,26(13),4876-4893. |
MLA | Mallard, Megan S.,et al."Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part I: Experimental Design and Isolation of Thermodynamic Effects".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26.13(2013):4876-4893. |
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