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DOI10.1016/j.envint.2016.12.005
Causal inference in cumulative risk assessment: The roles of directed acyclic graphs
Brewer, L. Elizabeth1; Wright, J. Michael2; Rice, Glenn2; Neas, Lucas3; Teuschler, Linda4
发表日期2017-05-01
ISSN0160-4120
卷号102页码:30-41
英文摘要

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and often focus on characterization of health risks in vulnerable populations. Evaluating complex exposure-response relationships in CRAs requires the use of formal and rigorous methods for causal inference. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are graphical causal models used to organize and communicate knowledge about the underlying causal structure that generates observable data. Using existing graphical theories for causal inference with DAGs, risk analysts can identify confounders and effect measure modifiers to determine if the available data are both internally valid to obtain unbiased risk estimates and are generalizable to populations of interest. Conditional independencies implied by the structure of a DAG can be used to test assumptions used in a CRA against empirical data in a selected study and can contribute to the evidence evaluations related to specific causal pathways. This can facilitate quantitative use of these data, as well as help identify key research gaps, prioritize data collection activities, and evaluate risk management alternatives. DAGs also enable risk analysts to be explicit about sources of uncertainty and to determine whether a causal effect can be estimated from available data. Using a conceptual model and DAG for a hypothetical community located near a concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO), we illustrate the advantages of using DAGs for evaluating causality in CRAs. DAGs also can be used in conjunction with weight of evidence (WOE) methodology to improve causal analysis for CRA, which could lead to more effective interventions to reduce population health risks. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Cumulative risk assessment;Conceptual model;Directed acyclic graph;Causal inference;Confounding;Causal models
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000400202400003
来源期刊ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/58622
作者单位1.US EPA, Oak Ridge Inst Sci & Educ, Off Res & Dev, Off Sci Advisor, 1300 Penn Ave NW,MC8195R, Washington, DC 20004 USA;
2.US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Ctr Environm Assessment, 26 W Martin Luther King Dr,MS-A110, Cincinnati, OH 45268 USA;
3.US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, B305-01, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA;
4.LK Teuschler & Associates, St Petersburg, FL 33707 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Brewer, L. Elizabeth,Wright, J. Michael,Rice, Glenn,et al. Causal inference in cumulative risk assessment: The roles of directed acyclic graphs[J]. 美国环保署,2017,102:30-41.
APA Brewer, L. Elizabeth,Wright, J. Michael,Rice, Glenn,Neas, Lucas,&Teuschler, Linda.(2017).Causal inference in cumulative risk assessment: The roles of directed acyclic graphs.ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL,102,30-41.
MLA Brewer, L. Elizabeth,et al."Causal inference in cumulative risk assessment: The roles of directed acyclic graphs".ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 102(2017):30-41.
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