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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00183.1
Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency
Mallard, Megan S.; Lackmann, Gary M.; Aiyyer, Anantha
发表日期2013-11-01
ISSN0894-8755
卷号26期号:21页码:8513-8528
英文摘要

A method of downscaling that isolates the effect of temperature and moisture changes on tropical cyclone (TC) activity was presented in Part I of this study. By applying thermodynamic modifications to analyzed initial and boundary conditions from past TC seasons, initial disturbances and the strength of synoptic-scale vertical wind shear are preserved in future simulations. This experimental design allows comparison of TC genesis events in the same synoptic setting, but in current and future thermodynamic environments. Simulations of both an active (September 2005) and inactive (September 2009) portion of past hurricane seasons are presented.An ensemble of high-resolution simulations projects reductions in ensemble-average TC counts between 18% and 24%, consistent with previous studies. Robust decreases in TC and hurricane counts are simulated with 18- and 6-km grid lengths, for both active and inactive periods. Physical processes responsible for reduced activity are examined through comparison of monthly and spatially averaged genesis-relevant parameters, as well as case studies of development of corresponding initial disturbances in current and future thermodynamic conditions. These case studies show that reductions in TC counts are due to the presence of incipient disturbances in marginal moisture environments, where increases in the moist entropy saturation deficits in future conditions preclude genesis for some disturbances. Increased convective inhibition and reduced vertical velocity are also found in the future environment. It is concluded that a robust decrease in TC frequency can result from thermodynamic changes alone, without modification of vertical wind shear or the number of incipient disturbances.


英文关键词Hurricanes;Tropical cyclones;Climate change;Hurricanes;typhoons;General circulation models;Mesoscale models
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000330193800016
来源期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
来源机构美国环保署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/58468
作者单位N Carolina State Univ, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mallard, Megan S.,Lackmann, Gary M.,Aiyyer, Anantha. Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency[J]. 美国环保署,2013,26(21):8513-8528.
APA Mallard, Megan S.,Lackmann, Gary M.,&Aiyyer, Anantha.(2013).Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,26(21),8513-8528.
MLA Mallard, Megan S.,et al."Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26.21(2013):8513-8528.
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