气候变化领域集成服务门户

Quantitative relationships between biological resources and hydrological variables are often needed to fulfill legislative requirements for management of estuaries and coastal waters. We used a 28-year record of blue crab landings to support development of a minimum flow (defined in Florida Statutes as the point at which further withdrawals of freshwater will cause "significant harm" to the resources or ecology) for the Caloosahatchee Estuary in Florida, USA. Annual catch per unit effort (CPUE) was computed from monthly landings of crabs and measures of fishing effort. Both unadjusted and de-trended annual CPUE were significantly correlated with rainfall, freshwater inflow and the Multivariate ENSO Index during the previous year's dry season. Increases in CPUE from 1 year to the next were positively related to dry season rainfall in the first of the 2 years. The Minimum Flow was intended to protect the resources from an impact taking 2 or more years to recover. Geometric mean functional regressions and Monte Carlo simulations were used to identify the dry season rainfall associated with this level of impact. Both a spectral analysis and the Monte Carlo simulations indicated that this level of rainfall occurred about once every 6 years. The corresponding Minimum Flow ranged from 8.6 to 12.3 m(3)/s (averaged over the dry season and measured at the headwater control structure of the estuary). This study demonstrated the relationship between hydrologic variables (rainfall, freshwater inflow) and blue crab landings and the usefulness of fisheries catch data in providing the technical basis for developing environmental flow targets.