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DOI | 10.1111/jfr3.12043 |
Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate | |
Wobus, C.1; Lawson, M.1; Jones, R.1; Smith, J.1; Martinich, J.2 | |
发表日期 | 2014-09-01 |
ISSN | 1753-318X |
卷号 | 7期号:3页码:217-229 |
英文摘要 | Extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent and more extreme under a changing climate. It follows that monetary damages from flooding would also increase relative to baseline, yet this relationship has not been quantified at the scale of the entire United States. In this paper, we quantify how climate change could affect monetary damages from flooding in the coterminous United States. With publicly available historical flooding and precipitation data, we estimate region-specific logistic regression models of the probability that severely damaging floods will occur under baseline conditions. We then use future precipitation projections driven by climate model outputs to estimate the probability that damaging floods could occur under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario. Our results project an increase in monetary damages from flooding in nearly all regions of the United States and a total increase in damages by the end of century of approximately 30% (assuming no change in built infrastructure or values). However, these changes vary between regions due to differences in the mechanisms driving flooding and general circulation model precipitation projections. |
英文关键词 | Climate change;modelling;precipitation |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000345417900004 |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
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来源机构 | 美国环保署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/56970 |
作者单位 | 1.Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO USA; 2.US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wobus, C.,Lawson, M.,Jones, R.,et al. Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate[J]. 美国环保署,2014,7(3):217-229. |
APA | Wobus, C.,Lawson, M.,Jones, R.,Smith, J.,&Martinich, J..(2014).Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate.JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT,7(3),217-229. |
MLA | Wobus, C.,et al."Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate".JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT 7.3(2014):217-229. |
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