CCPortal
DOI10.1007/s10584-013-0825-1
Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators
Lung, Tobias1,5; Dosio, Alessandro1; Becker, William2; Lavalle, Carlo1; Bouwer, Laurens M.3,4
发表日期2013
ISSN0165-0009
卷号120期号:1-2页码:211-227
英文关键词

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041-70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.


语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000323276900016
来源期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
来源机构欧洲环境署
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/56275
作者单位1.Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, Italy;
2.Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, I-21020 Ispra, Italy;
3.Deltares, Delft, Netherlands;
4.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands;
5.European Environm Agcy, Copenhagen, Denmark
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lung, Tobias,Dosio, Alessandro,Becker, William,et al. Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators[J]. 欧洲环境署,2013,120(1-2):211-227.
APA Lung, Tobias,Dosio, Alessandro,Becker, William,Lavalle, Carlo,&Bouwer, Laurens M..(2013).Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators.CLIMATIC CHANGE,120(1-2),211-227.
MLA Lung, Tobias,et al."Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators".CLIMATIC CHANGE 120.1-2(2013):211-227.
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