Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-013-0825-1 |
Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators | |
Lung, Tobias1,5; Dosio, Alessandro1; Becker, William2; Lavalle, Carlo1; Bouwer, Laurens M.3,4 | |
发表日期 | 2013 |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
卷号 | 120期号:1-2页码:211-227 |
英文关键词 | Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041-70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options. |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000323276900016 |
来源期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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来源机构 | 欧洲环境署 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/56275 |
作者单位 | 1.Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, Italy; 2.Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, I-21020 Ispra, Italy; 3.Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; 4.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 5.European Environm Agcy, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lung, Tobias,Dosio, Alessandro,Becker, William,et al. Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators[J]. 欧洲环境署,2013,120(1-2):211-227. |
APA | Lung, Tobias,Dosio, Alessandro,Becker, William,Lavalle, Carlo,&Bouwer, Laurens M..(2013).Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators.CLIMATIC CHANGE,120(1-2),211-227. |
MLA | Lung, Tobias,et al."Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators".CLIMATIC CHANGE 120.1-2(2013):211-227. |
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