气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-023-03646-6
	Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries
	Warren, R.; Price, J.; Forstenhausler, N.; Andrews, O.; Brown, S.; Ebi, K.; Gernaat, D.; Goodwin, P.; Guan, D.; He, Y.; Manful, D.; Yin, Z.; Hu, Y.; Jenkins, K.; Jenkins, R.; Kennedy-Asser, A.; Osborn, T. J.; Vanvuuren, D.; Wallace, C.; Wang, D.; Wright, R.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
起始页码	177
结束页码	3
卷号	177 期号:3
英文摘要	The Topical Collection Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries provides a harmonised assessment of risks to human and natural systems due to global warming of 1.5-4 degrees C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India) using a consistent set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. It compares risks in 2100 if warming has reached 3 degrees C, broadly corresponding to current global greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, including countries' National Determined Contributions, rather than the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 'well below' 2 degrees C and 'pursuing efforts' to limit to 1.5 degrees C. Global population is assumed either constant at year 2000 levels or to increase to 9.2 billion by 2100. In either case, greater warming is projected to lead, in all six countries, to greater exposure of land and people to drought and fluvial flood hazard, greater declines in biodiversity, and greater reductions in the yield of maize and wheat. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C, compared with similar to 3 degrees C, is projected to deliver large benefits for all six countries, including reduced economic damages due to fluvial flooding. The greatest projected benefits are the avoidance of a large increase in exposure of agricultural land to severe drought, which is 61%, 43%, 18%, and 21% lower in Ethiopia, China, Ghana, and India at 1.5 degrees C than at 3 degrees C, whilst avoided increases in human exposure to severe drought are 20-80% lower at 1.5 degrees C than 3 degrees C across the six countries. Climate refugia for plants are largely preserved at 1.5 degrees C warming in Ghana, China, and Ethiopia, but refugia shrink in areal extent by a factor of 2, 3, 3, 4, and 10 in Ghana, China, India, Ethiopia, and Brazil, respectively, if warming reaches 3 degrees C. Economic damages associated with sea-level rise are projected to increase in coastal nations, but more slowly if warming were limited to 1.5 degrees C. Actual benefits on the ground will also depend on national and local contexts and the extent of future investment in adaptation.
英文关键词	Climate change; Risk; Human systems; Ecosystem services
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001173204300002
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/310049
作者单位	University of East Anglia; University of Bristol; University of York - UK; Bournemouth University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Southampton; NERC National Oceanography Centre; Tsinghua University; University of London; University College London; Southeast University - China; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; University of London; King's College London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Warren, R.,Price, J.,Forstenhausler, N.,et al. Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries[J],2024,177(3).
APA	Warren, R..,Price, J..,Forstenhausler, N..,Andrews, O..,Brown, S..,...&Wright, R..(2024).Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries.CLIMATIC CHANGE,177(3).
MLA	Warren, R.,et al."Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries".CLIMATIC CHANGE 177.3(2024).