气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023EF003831
	Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change
	Li, Chaojie; Kohn, Tamar
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	1
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate changes influence lake hydrodynamics and radiation levels and thus may affect the fate and transport of waterborne pathogens in lakes. This study examines the impact of climate change on the fate, transport, and associated risks of four waterborne viruses in Lake Geneva. We used a coupled water quality-microbial risk assessment model to estimate virus concentrations and associated risks to recreational water users for each month in 2019 and 2060. Long-term hydrodynamic simulations suggested that although the annual hydrodynamic transport pattern of Lake Geneva will remain relatively stable, a 1.9 degrees C increase of lake surface water temperature can be expected, while a slight decrease in lake current velocity may occur. The subsequent effect on the fate and transport of the four enteric viruses was found to vary by time of year. During warmer periods, the increase of virus inactivation due to higher water temperature and stronger solar radiation at the earth's surface will compensate for the additional virus discharge brought about by population growth over the time period considered, whereas during winter the virus concentration near the lake shore and the associated infection probabilities risks are likely to increase due to population growth. Additionally, the current estimation of virus inactivation rate shows significant variability, which has a more substantial effect on enteric virus concentrations in the lake compared with changing climate parameters. Overall, the study suggests that future risks posed by enteric viruses with recreational water users near popular beaches around Lake Geneva will likely remain similar to current risks and accurate estimation of the environmental inactivation of viruses is crucial for predicting the fate of enteric viruses in the aquatic system. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the fate, transport, and associated risks of four waterborne viruses in Lake Geneva, Switzerland, using a coupled water quality-microbial risk assessment model. The results indicate that the influence of changing environmental conditions on the fate and transport of enteric viruses varies by time of year. Additionally, the current estimation of virus inactivation rate shows significant variability, which has a more substantial effect on enteric virus concentrations in the lake compared with changing climate parameters. Overall, the study suggests that the risks posed by enteric viruses with recreational water users near popular beaches around Lake Geneva in 2060 will likely remain similar to current risks. However, accurate estimation of the environmental inactivation of viruses is crucial for predicting the fate of enteric viruses in aquatic systems in the future. Climate change affects lake hydrodynamics as well as fate and transport of waterborne pathogens in Lake GenevaEnhanced inactivation due to higher water temperature and solar radiation compensates for increasing viral loads due to population growthInfection risks to recreational water users in Lake Geneva in 2060 will likely be similar to the present situation
英文关键词	climate change; water quality simulation; waterborne viruses; risk assessment
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001147981000001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309931
作者单位	Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Chaojie,Kohn, Tamar. Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change[J],2024,12(1).
APA	Li, Chaojie,&Kohn, Tamar.(2024).Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change.EARTHS FUTURE,12(1).
MLA	Li, Chaojie,et al."Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change".EARTHS FUTURE 12.1(2024).