气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China

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DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-54885-1
	Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China
	Dong, Diwen; Tao, Hui; Zhang, Zengxin
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	The intensification of heatwaves dues to climate change is a significant concern, with substantial impacts on ecosystems and human health, particularly in developing countries. This study utilizes NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) and projected population data accounting for China's population policies to project changes in various grades of heatwaves (light, moderate, and severe) and the population exposure to heatwaves (PEH) in Xinjiang under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the number of days and intensity of heatwaves in Xinjiang are projected to increase. Heatwaves occurring in Xinjiang will predominantly be severe heatwaves (SHW) in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the number of SHW days projected to increase by 62 +/- 18.4 days compared to the reference period. Changes in heatwaves are anticipated to influence PEH, estimating population exposure to light, moderate, and severe heatwaves (LPEH, MPEH, and SPEH) at 534.6 +/- 64 million, 496.2 +/- 43.5 million, and 1602.4 +/- 562.5 million person-days, respectively, in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of PEH is projected to be consistent with that of the reference period, with high values persisting in Urumqi, Kashgar and Hotan. Changes in PEH are primarily driven by climate effects, followed by interactive effects, while population effects contribute the least. Therefore, mitigating climate change is crucial to reduce the PEH in Xinjiang.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001177180300002
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309897
作者单位	Xinjiang University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; Nanjing Forestry University; Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong, Diwen,Tao, Hui,Zhang, Zengxin. Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Dong, Diwen,Tao, Hui,&Zhang, Zengxin.(2024).Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Dong, Diwen,et al."Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).