气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes and distribution of water resources in China under global warming levels of 1.5-4.5 °C

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101781
	Future changes and distribution of water resources in China under global warming levels of 1.5-4.5 °C
	Zhu, Xueping; Liu, Jie; Qi, Wei; Gao, Xuerui; Zhao, Xuehua; Zhu, Bowen
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2214-5818
起始页码	53
卷号	53
英文摘要	Study region: China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan). Study focus: Few studies have nationally evaluated China ' s spatiotemporal distribution of future runoff and per capita water resources (PCWR). Based on the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, the future runoff and PCWR in China under global warming levels of 1.5 - 4.5 degrees C are predicted. The calibrated Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model with improved Snow physics for Global simulation (WEB-DHM-SG) was driven by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 3b (ISIMIP3b) protocol data to simulate runoff and future population data were used to predict the PCWR. Furthermore, the pre-industrial scenario was compared with future development scenarios to analyse the impact of humaninduced climate change (HICC). New hydrological insights for the region: The average annual runoff would increase by 6.9 - 27.6 % nationally and increase in 28 provinces, whereas it would decrease in the other 3 provinces. Seasonal runoff decreased in winter but increased in the other three seasons. Runoff is affected by HICC by 4.1 - 30.0 %. The national average PCWR would change by -7.5 % to 20.4 %. Water shortage conditions might be further intensified in nine provinces but relatively alleviated in the other 22 provinces. Our results can provide scientific support for the future national and regional water planning and management in China.
英文关键词	Water resources changes; Global warming; Spatiotemporal distribution; Human-induced climate change; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001230305400001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309887
作者单位	Taiyuan University of Technology; Southern University of Science & Technology; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Soil & Water Conservation (ISWC), CAS; Northwest A&F University - China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Xueping,Liu, Jie,Qi, Wei,et al. Future changes and distribution of water resources in China under global warming levels of 1.5-4.5 °C[J],2024,53.
APA	Zhu, Xueping,Liu, Jie,Qi, Wei,Gao, Xuerui,Zhao, Xuehua,&Zhu, Bowen.(2024).Future changes and distribution of water resources in China under global warming levels of 1.5-4.5 °C.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,53.
MLA	Zhu, Xueping,et al."Future changes and distribution of water resources in China under global warming levels of 1.5-4.5 °C".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 53(2024).