气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians

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DOI	10.1007/s10531-024-02779-z
	Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians
	Bellin, Nicolo; Rossi, Valeria
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0960-3115
EISSN	1572-9710
起始页码	33
结束页码	3
卷号	33 期号:3
英文摘要	Multiple stressors, including global warming, increasingly threaten the distribution and abundance of gorgonian forests. We built species distribution models (SDM) combined with machine learning algorithms to compare the ecological niche and distribution response to climate change under the worst IPCC scenario RCP8.5 for three Mediterranean gorgonian species (Paramuricea clavata,Eunicella cavolinii and Eunicella singularis. To obtain the potential habitat suitability and future distribution projections (2040-2050), we employed three Machine Learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest and the K-nearest neighbour) which considered 23 physicochemical and 4 geophysical environmental variables. The global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was used to identify the most important environmental variables shaping habitat suitability for each species and to disentangle the interaction terms among environmental variables. For all species, bathymetry was the primary variable influencing habitat suitability, which had strong interactions with silicate concentration, salinity, and concavity. Under predicted future climatic conditions, P. clavata is predicted to shift its habitat suitability from lower to higher latitudes, mainly in the Adriatic Sea. For both E. cavolinii and E. singularis, a general habitat reduction was predicted. In particular, E. cavolinii is expected to reduce its occupancy area by 49%, suggesting that the sensitivity of symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) may not be the principal cause of susceptibility of this species to thermal stresses and climate change.
英文关键词	Paramuricea clavata; Eunicella cavolinii; Eunicella singularis; Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSUA); Machine learning (ML); Species distribution models (SDM)
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001163262000001
来源期刊	BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309858
作者单位	University of Parma
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bellin, Nicolo,Rossi, Valeria. Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians[J],2024,33(3).
APA	Bellin, Nicolo,&Rossi, Valeria.(2024).Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians.BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION,33(3).
MLA	Bellin, Nicolo,et al."Modeling the effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of Mediterranean gorgonians".BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION 33.3(2024).