气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41559-024-02333-8
	Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems
	Conradi, Timo; Eggli, Urs; Kreft, Holger; Schweiger, Andreas H.; Weigelt, Patrick; Higgins, Steven I.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	8
结束页码	5
卷号	8 期号:5
英文摘要	Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS类目	Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS记录号	WOS:001176595700001
来源期刊	NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309652
作者单位	University of Bayreuth; University of Gottingen; University of Gottingen; University Hohenheim
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Conradi, Timo,Eggli, Urs,Kreft, Holger,et al. Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems[J],2024,8(5).
APA	Conradi, Timo,Eggli, Urs,Kreft, Holger,Schweiger, Andreas H.,Weigelt, Patrick,&Higgins, Steven I..(2024).Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems.NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION,8(5).
MLA	Conradi, Timo,et al."Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems".NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION 8.5(2024).