气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Suitable areas for temperate fruit trees in a Brazilian hotspot area: Changes driven by new IPCC scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.eja.2024.127110
	Suitable areas for temperate fruit trees in a Brazilian hotspot area: Changes driven by new IPCC scenarios
	Ribeiro, Alysson Fernando; Martins, Fabrina Bolzan; dos Santos, Diego Felipe; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Fagundes, Flavia Fernanda Azevedo
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1161-0301
EISSN	1873-7331
起始页码	155
卷号	155
英文摘要	Chilling accumulation and sufficient water availability are mandatory requirements for most temperate fruit trees (TFT) productivity. Given the strong dependence of these crops on air temperature and water availability, it is imperative to analyze the impacts of climate change on TFT, especially in areas considered persistent climate change hotspots. This study analyzed the impacts of climate change on suitable areas for planting TFT in a Brazilian state considered a hotspot for future climate changes - Minas Gerais, using an Agroclimatic Zoning (AZ) method, and outlined adaptation measures for the sustainable cultivation of the main TFT under future climate scenarios. Daily near-surface air temperature (minimum and maximum) and precipitation data were used from 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEXGDDP), which are derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The AZ method was applied for the current climate simulations (1995-2014), as well as for projections by the near (2041-2060) and far future (2081 - 2100) climate conditions considering two base temperature values (Tb = 7 degrees C and 13 degrees C). Given intense and persistent increases in air temperature, water deficit, and reduced chilling accumulation, TFT plantations will be restricted and economically unfeasible for about 69% (SSP2.4-5) to 86% (SSP5.8-5) of Minas Gerais in the far future for both Tb values. Only -6% (near future) and -2% (far future) of the study area located in a small portion of the Southern region of Minas Gerais will be suitable for TFT plantations. However, the future of TFT plantations in places classified as regular will depend on adopting adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability to these crops, including low-chill genotypes selection, improvements in breeding programs, using strategies to break dormancy artificially, and intensifying irrigation with less water-demanding techniques.
英文关键词	Chilling requirement; Water deficit; Agroclimatic zoning; Earth System Models; CMIP6; Adaptation measures
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS记录号	WOS:001186320100001
来源期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309531
作者单位	Universidade Federal de Itajuba
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ribeiro, Alysson Fernando,Martins, Fabrina Bolzan,dos Santos, Diego Felipe,et al. Suitable areas for temperate fruit trees in a Brazilian hotspot area: Changes driven by new IPCC scenarios[J],2024,155.
APA	Ribeiro, Alysson Fernando,Martins, Fabrina Bolzan,dos Santos, Diego Felipe,Torres, Roger Rodrigues,&Fagundes, Flavia Fernanda Azevedo.(2024).Suitable areas for temperate fruit trees in a Brazilian hotspot area: Changes driven by new IPCC scenarios.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,155.
MLA	Ribeiro, Alysson Fernando,et al."Suitable areas for temperate fruit trees in a Brazilian hotspot area: Changes driven by new IPCC scenarios".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 155(2024).