气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/su16031072
	Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City
	Papadopoulos, Giorgos; Keppas, Stavros C.; Parliari, Daphne; Kontos, Serafim; Papadogiannaki, Sofia; Melas, Dimitrios
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2071-1050
起始页码	16
结束页码	3
卷号	16 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change has been linked to the escalating frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves in the Mediterranean region, intensifying health concerns for the general populace. Urban environments face elevated health risks due to concentrated populations and the urban heat island effect, further amplifying nighttime heat conditions. This study aims to project changes in heat wave characteristics and the associated population exposure risk in a large Mediterranean city, Thessaloniki, Greece. High-resolution climate simulations, using the WRF model, were conducted for three 5-year periods (2006-2010, 2046-2050, 2096-2100) under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, covering Thessaloniki with a 2 km grid. By the end of the century, Thessaloniki is projected to experience over 60 annual heat wave days, compared to similar to 8 in the present climate, while some episodes were found to persist beyond 30 days. The relative risk during heat wave days is expected to rise, which is primarily due to nighttime heat stress. Interestingly, the results indicate that minimum apparent temperature might be a more reliable indicator in predicting heat-related mortality compared to maximum apparent temperature. These findings emphasize the growing importance of informed heat mitigation and adaptation strategies and healthcare preparedness in urban areas facing escalating heat-related health challenges.
英文关键词	future projections; climate change; Mediterranean; heat waves; heat wave indices; heat-related mortality; relative risk
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001161063200001
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309494
作者单位	Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Papadopoulos, Giorgos,Keppas, Stavros C.,Parliari, Daphne,et al. Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City[J],2024,16(3).
APA	Papadopoulos, Giorgos,Keppas, Stavros C.,Parliari, Daphne,Kontos, Serafim,Papadogiannaki, Sofia,&Melas, Dimitrios.(2024).Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City.SUSTAINABILITY,16(3).
MLA	Papadopoulos, Giorgos,et al."Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City".SUSTAINABILITY 16.3(2024).