气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s42965-024-00350-z
	Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools
	Ferreira, Marinaldo Loures; Veloso, Ronnie Von Dos Santos; De Oliveira, Gildriano Soares; Queiroz, Renan Batista; Araujo, Fausto Henrique Vieira; De Andrade, Andre Medeiros; Da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0564-3295
EISSN	2661-8982
英文摘要	Coffee is a crucial crop for the economy of several countries. It contributes substantially to the livelihoods of millions of small producers worldwide. Coffea canephora represents 40% of the world's production of beans. Coffea canephora is a perennial crop, it is sensitive to climate, and several production areas in Brazil may become unfit for C. canephora cultivation due to expected climate change. Thus, knowledge of the temporal dynamics of favorable climate conditions for C. canephora in Brazil is necessary. This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for C. canephora in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to C. Canephora over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The results may help long-term planning strategies to mitigate the economic effects of the climate change scenario on C. canephora production in Brazil. [GRAPHICS]
英文关键词	Adaptability; Climate modeling; Future scenarios; Resistance; Robust coffee; Tropical weather
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001214868700001
来源期刊	TROPICAL ECOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309489
作者单位	Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferreira, Marinaldo Loures,Veloso, Ronnie Von Dos Santos,De Oliveira, Gildriano Soares,et al. Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools[J],2024.
APA	Ferreira, Marinaldo Loures.,Veloso, Ronnie Von Dos Santos.,De Oliveira, Gildriano Soares.,Queiroz, Renan Batista.,Araujo, Fausto Henrique Vieira.,...&Da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira.(2024).Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools.TROPICAL ECOLOGY.
MLA	Ferreira, Marinaldo Loures,et al."Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools".TROPICAL ECOLOGY (2024).