气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/h2oj.2024.110
	Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin
	Pokharel, Pragya; Regmi, Ram Krishna
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2616-6518
起始页码	7
结束页码	2
卷号	7 期号:2
英文摘要	Responding to Nepal's hydropower sector's vulnerability to climate change, this study investigates its impact on energy security, focusing on the Madi River Basin's snow-fed river systems. This study conducted a rigorous analysis of the basin's historical and future hydroclimatic trends, using the linear scaling method to evaluate and correct inherent biases in 13 GCMs, resulting in the selection of 6 BCMs with above-satisfactory performance. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation across all timeframes with a higher increment in SSP585 by the end of the century, and a temperature rise ranging from 1.8 to 3.5(degrees)C from the baseline in the far future under moderate- to high-emission scenarios. These hydroclimatic projections are then forced into the calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with very good performance (both R-2 and NSE greater than 0.8). The streamflow projection demonstrates an overall increasing trend, marked by significant flow reduction in early months and pronounced monsoon peaks. The analysis of three distinct hydropower projects reveals unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of projects and the need for location-specific planning and strategic management. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable development in renewable energy, laying the foundation for future research and policy in similar hydroclimatic settings.
英文关键词	climate change; energy security; hydroclimatic trend; integrated modeling; linear scaling; SWAT model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001181938400001
来源期刊	H2OPEN JOURNAL
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309457
作者单位	Tribhuvan University; Institute of Engineering (IOE) - Nepal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pokharel, Pragya,Regmi, Ram Krishna. Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin[J],2024,7(2).
APA	Pokharel, Pragya,&Regmi, Ram Krishna.(2024).Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin.H2OPEN JOURNAL,7(2).
MLA	Pokharel, Pragya,et al."Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin".H2OPEN JOURNAL 7.2(2024).