气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.659
	Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models
	Salas, Hernan D.; Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Florian, Carolina; Valencia, Juliana; Tamayo, Yesid; Bermudez, Mariana; Rodriguez, Melissa; Echeverri, Katherine
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
英文摘要	We studied the projections of streamflows under climate change scenarios in the Upper Orinoco River Basin by using precipitation from 15 global and regional climate models for the period 2020-2099. For this purpose, we calibrated and validated a hydrological model with a very good performance. Our results show that both precipitation and streamflow have a significant reduction for the RCP8.5 scenario that ranges from 5 and 7% in relation to the long-term means at the end of the century. The changes in both variables are not significant for the RCP2.6 scenario. Moreover, we compute several indicators of change in the streamflow to quantify alterations in high-, mid-, and low-range flows. Our results suggest that the main alterations for the future runoff would be evidenced in the mid-range and low flows, which could increase around similar to 5 and similar to 25%, respectively. These alterations could lead to changes in the hydrological, environmental, and ecological balance of the basin. This work provides information regarding the possible effects of climate change on the streamflow of one of the most important river basins of northern South America, which is pivotal for supporting future decision-making on water supply for social, environmental, and productive sectors.
英文关键词	future scenarios; GCMs; global warming; hydrological modeling; rainfall-runoff; RCMs; river flows
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001234412900001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309454
作者单位	Institucion Universitaria Colegio Mayor de Antioquia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Salas, Hernan D.,Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro,Florian, Carolina,et al. Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models[J],2024.
APA	Salas, Hernan D..,Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro.,Florian, Carolina.,Valencia, Juliana.,Tamayo, Yesid.,...&Echeverri, Katherine.(2024).Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
MLA	Salas, Hernan D.,et al."Projected effects of climate change in precipitation and streamflows of the Upper Orinoco River Basin from global and regional climate models".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2024).