气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

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DOI	10.1111/gcb.17079
	Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species
	Aldea, Jorge; Dahlgren, Jonas; Holmstroem, Emma; Loef, Magnus
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1354-1013
EISSN	1365-2486
起始页码	30
结束页码	1
卷号	30 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.
英文关键词	birch; climate change adaptation; drought risk; machine learning; Norway spruce; random forest; Scots pine; tree-ring data
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001151213000093
来源期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309430
作者单位	Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aldea, Jorge,Dahlgren, Jonas,Holmstroem, Emma,et al. Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species[J],2024,30(1).
APA	Aldea, Jorge,Dahlgren, Jonas,Holmstroem, Emma,&Loef, Magnus.(2024).Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,30(1).
MLA	Aldea, Jorge,et al."Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 30.1(2024).