气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the sensitivity of maize production to long-term trends in fertilization and regional climate in China

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DOI	10.1016/j.jafr.2024.101015
	Quantifying the sensitivity of maize production to long-term trends in fertilization and regional climate in China
	Huang, Na; Liang, Ju; Lun, Fei; Jiang, Kang; Long, Buju; Chen, Xiao; Gao, Riping; Zhou, Yi; Men, Jingyu; Bi, Pengshuai; Pan, Zhihua
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2666-1543
起始页码	15
卷号	15
英文摘要	The regional climate over China has changed pronouncedly since the mid-20th, posing substantial risks and uncertainties to local crop production. The maize production has demonstrated considerable sensitivity to such changes. Observations in recent years witnessed that the use of fertilizer has been a crucial contributor to the increase in yields of global staple crops including maize. Thus, adjusting fertilizer use is a potential measure to offset the negative impacts of climate change on staple crops, while quantifying the pros and cons of such a measure for maize production has not been sufficiently performed. Based on multiple sources of observational records and statistical yield simulations, this study assesses the impacts of historical trends of regional climate and fertilizer use on maize yield over the main cultivation regions in China for the period 1981 to 2020. The results show that 1 degrees C of warming has resulted in pronounced changes in the general maize yield (-5.5 +/- 0.5 %- 21.1 +/- 1.1 %, mean +/- error standard). In comparison, a 10 % increase in fertilizer use has resulted in boosted yield by 2.4 +/- 0.2 %-4.3 +/- 0.2 %. For the mitigation effects of fertilizer, a 10 % increase in fertilizer use can offset 2-3 % of yield reductions associated with the changes in both temperature and precipitation. During the climate change period, the contribution of temperature and precipitation trends shifted from yield loss (by - 8.1 +/- 1.5 %) to yield gain (by 5.1 +/- 2 %) from north to south, while more fertilizer uses contributed to maize yield gain across the maize belt by 26.4 +/- 1.1 %. This quantified information indicates the crucial role of fertilizer use in alleviating the hazardous impacts of regional climate changes on maize production in China, which delivered a key message for optimizing strategies for climate change adaptation in maize production zones across China.
英文关键词	Climate change; Maize; Fertilizer use; Sensitivity; Contribution
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Food Science & Technology
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Food Science & Technology
WOS记录号	WOS:001178733100001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309409
作者单位	China Agricultural University; China Agricultural University; Hunan Normal University; China Agricultural University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Na,Liang, Ju,Lun, Fei,et al. Quantifying the sensitivity of maize production to long-term trends in fertilization and regional climate in China[J],2024,15.
APA	Huang, Na.,Liang, Ju.,Lun, Fei.,Jiang, Kang.,Long, Buju.,...&Pan, Zhihua.(2024).Quantifying the sensitivity of maize production to long-term trends in fertilization and regional climate in China.JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH,15.
MLA	Huang, Na,et al."Quantifying the sensitivity of maize production to long-term trends in fertilization and regional climate in China".JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH 15(2024).