气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2023EF003842
	Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders
	Ruane, Alex C.; Phillips, Meridel; Jagermeyr, Jonas; Mueller, Christoph
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	4
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	We utilize a global warming level (GWL) lens to evaluate global and regional patterns of agricultural impacts as global surface temperature increases, providing a unique perspective on the experience of stakeholders with continued warming in the 21st century. We analyze crop productivity outputs from 11 crop models simulating 5 climate models under 3 emissions scenarios across 4 crops within the AgMIP/ISIMIP Phase 3 ensemble. We categorize regional productivity changes (without adaptation) into 9 characteristic climate change response patterns, identifying consistent increases and decreases as well as non-linear (peak or dip) responses indicative of inflection points reversing trends as GWLs increase. Many maize regions and pockets of wheat, rice and soybean show peak decrease patterns where initial increases may lull stakeholders into complacency or maladaptation before productivity shifts to losses at higher GWLs. Although the GWL perspective has proven useful in connecting diverse climate models and emissions scenarios, we identify multiple pitfalls that recommend proceeding with caution when applying this approach to climate impacts. Chief among these is that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at any GWL depend on a climate model's transient climate response (TCR). Higher CO2 concentrations generally benefit crop productivity, so this leads to more pessimistic agricultural projections for so-called hot models and can skew multi-model ensemble results as models with high TCR are disproportionately likely to reach higher GWLs. While there are strong connections between many climatic impact-drivers and GWLs, vulnerability and exposure components of food system risk are strongly dependent on development pathways. This study uses the latest ensemble of crop and climate models with a framework to identify cropping systems and regions where non-linear aspects of agricultural system response to climate change could lead to complacency or maladaptation. Results will help readers understand the different experiences and contextual adaptation needs for food systems in the coming decades. This framework could be widely applied across all impacts sectors. Analysis also highlights that climate models with particularly strong climate sensitivity lead more pessimistic projections by crop impacts, underscoring the need for special care in the use of climate model ensembles for impact assessments. Climate change response patterns show regional farming systems where initial positive changes give way to long-term detrimental impacts Regional and species-dependent patterns of agricultural impacts on benchmark global warming levels prioritize risk management strategies Climate models with high climate sensitivity have less CO2 benefit on a given global warming level (GWL) and are over-represented in ensembles of higher GWLs
英文关键词	global warming levels; food security; adaptation; crop productivity; climate impacts; climate sensitivity; hot models; agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP); inter-sectoral impacts model intercomparison project (ISIMIP); climate change response patterns
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001200492600001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309392
作者单位	National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Columbia University; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruane, Alex C.,Phillips, Meridel,Jagermeyr, Jonas,et al. Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders[J],2024,12(4).
APA	Ruane, Alex C.,Phillips, Meridel,Jagermeyr, Jonas,&Mueller, Christoph.(2024).Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders.EARTHS FUTURE,12(4).
MLA	Ruane, Alex C.,et al."Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders".EARTHS FUTURE 12.4(2024).