气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Heat wave time of emergence patterns: a matter of definition

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DOI	10.1088/2515-7620/ad45c2
	Heat wave time of emergence patterns: a matter of definition
	Padalino, Christine; Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2515-7620
起始页码	6
结束页码	5
卷号	6 期号:5
英文摘要	Hot extremes, such as heatwaves, have been associated with health, economic, and ecosystem-wide impacts. The timing of emergence of changes in extremes due to anthropogenic climate change is a topic of broad scientific and societal importance. While various studies have estimated the timing and impacts of heatwaves, the definitional aspect of a heatwave in determining the relative time of emergence has not been addressed. We adopt two commonly used definitions of heatwave employed in different reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate the time at which the frequency of heatwaves becomes detectably different from the historical baseline using an ensemble of 10 GCMS from the CMIP6 archives forced by the SSP2-4.5 concentration pathway. For a heatwave definition of sustained temperatures exceeding 5 degrees C warmer above the historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in high latitudes over land and displays correlation with the signal (amount of warming) and noise (variability). In contrast, for a heatwave definition of sustained temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile of historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in low latitude regions and is correlated with the signal to noise ratio. This work underscores the importance of metric choice in estimating the timing of new climate regimes and that metric selection for informing adaptation timing should thus be tailored to the regional context.
英文关键词	definitions; heatwave; time of emergence
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001218744100001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309308
作者单位	Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Georgetown University; Georgetown University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Padalino, Christine,Lickley, Megan,Solomon, Susan. Heat wave time of emergence patterns: a matter of definition[J],2024,6(5).
APA	Padalino, Christine,Lickley, Megan,&Solomon, Susan.(2024).Heat wave time of emergence patterns: a matter of definition.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS,6(5).
MLA	Padalino, Christine,et al."Heat wave time of emergence patterns: a matter of definition".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS 6.5(2024).