气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10668-024-04977-9
	ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus
	Malik, M. Mahad; Asim, Hamza Waheed; Kazmi, Syed Ali Abbas; Mujahid, Kamran; Ansari, Muhammad Waleed
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1387-585X
EISSN	1573-2975
英文摘要	Climate change and rising temperatures represent a grave threat to modern civilization, with many of the key infrastructures across the world under risk. The energy sector is highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming, and many of its subsectors would be impacted by it. We use climate projections from climate models and use them to estimate the impact on demand, transmission, and generation in the country. An ANN-based approach utilizing historical demand patterns is used to estimate the impact on consumer demand, and it showed that most regions in the country would experience a drastic increase in demand. A thermal model of transmission lines showed that some transmission lines might lose 23.34% of their capacity. Data reveals that renewable energy sources boost energy efficiency. Hence, future national policies should include more of them. Thermal and PV power in the country have been compared to their resilience to rising temperatures. Without the implementation of more efficient technologies, demand-side management programs, or the upgrading of transmission infrastructure, CC impacts may overwhelm Pakistan's already weak grid system. Our applied models show the Highest forecasting efficiency to be 92.42%, 92.02% and 91.98% for PESCO, LESCO and IESCO.
英文关键词	Artificial neural networks; Climate change; Transmission lines; Transmission grid; Power grid; Sustainability for grids; Power infrastructure
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001216055700003
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309246
作者单位	National University of Sciences & Technology - Pakistan; Carl von Ossietzky Universitat Oldenburg
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Malik, M. Mahad,Asim, Hamza Waheed,Kazmi, Syed Ali Abbas,et al. ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus[J],2024.
APA	Malik, M. Mahad,Asim, Hamza Waheed,Kazmi, Syed Ali Abbas,Mujahid, Kamran,&Ansari, Muhammad Waleed.(2024).ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY.
MLA	Malik, M. Mahad,et al."ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY (2024).