气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico

CCPortal

DOI	10.17129/botsci.3355
	Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico
	Carlos Guzman-Santiago, Juan; Manuel De Los Santos-Posadas, Hector; Angeles-Perez, Gregorio; Vargas-Larreta, Benedicto; Gomez-Cardenas, Martin; Rodriguez-Oritz, Gerardo; Omar Corona-Nunez, Rogelio
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2007-4298
EISSN	2007-4476
起始页码	102
结束页码	1
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Background: Climate change is becoming more evident, and distribution models are useful tools to predict the effect it might cause on biodiversity. Hypotheses: Under climate change scenarios, temperate forests species of the genus Pinus and Quercus will undergo reductions in their distribution area and changes in their spatial pattern. Studied species: Arbutus xalapensis, Clethra mexicana, Pinus devoniana, Pinus oocarpa, Pinus teocote, Quercus acutifolia, Quercus castanea, Quercus crassifolia, Quercus elliptica, Quercus magnoliifolia and Quercus rugosa. Study site: Oaxaca Methods: Two scenarios were constructed, an optimistic one (SSP-1 and RCP 2-6) and a pessimistic one (SSP-5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2030 and 2090. A total of 1,383 records and eight bioclimatic variables were used, along with seven learning algorithms, evaluated using ROC and TSS metrics. Results: An ensemble model was obtained, in which the most important contributing variables were precipitation of the wettest quarter, mean annual temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual temperature range. The species that showed the highest ROC values were Clethra mexicana (0.91) and Arbutus xalapensis (0.89) with TSS values of 0.68 and 0.60, respectively. Conclusions: Regardless of the scenario, by the year 2090 all species of Pinus and Quercus will reduce their potential distribution. Therefore, it is urgent to establish conservation policies.
英文关键词	conservation strategy; climate models; ecological niche; Pinus; Quercus.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
WOS类目	Plant Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001175753100001
来源期刊	BOTANICAL SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309183
作者单位	Colegio de Postgraduados - Mexico; Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carlos Guzman-Santiago, Juan,Manuel De Los Santos-Posadas, Hector,Angeles-Perez, Gregorio,et al. Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico[J],2024,102(1).
APA	Carlos Guzman-Santiago, Juan.,Manuel De Los Santos-Posadas, Hector.,Angeles-Perez, Gregorio.,Vargas-Larreta, Benedicto.,Gomez-Cardenas, Martin.,...&Omar Corona-Nunez, Rogelio.(2024).Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico.BOTANICAL SCIENCES,102(1).
MLA	Carlos Guzman-Santiago, Juan,et al."Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico".BOTANICAL SCIENCES 102.1(2024).