气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland

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DOI	10.1002/asl.1240
	The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland
	Bauer, Victoria M.; Scherrer, Simon C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1530-261X
英文摘要	Heavy precipitation is a major natural hazard in the Alps. Understanding the possible changes due to climate change is a prerequisite for effective climate adaptation and protection. In this study, we revisit the long-term (1901-2023) evolution of daily and multi-day heavy precipitation intensity and frequency, discuss trends for sub-daily to multi-day events in the recent period 1981-2023 and investigate elevation dependencies in the complex topography of Switzerland. We analyze station measurements from MeteoSwiss' dense operational network covering the whole country and a wide range of elevation levels. We find that daily maximum precipitation and the frequency of precipitation events exceeding the 99th all-day percentile have increased since 1901 with a peak in the 1980s and decreases thereafter. For the recent period 1981-2023, positive trends in summer heavy precipitation intensity are detected for short (10-min to 3-h) events, but no changes are found for the frequency of these moderate extreme events. For longer (1- to 5-day) events on the other hand, decreases in intensity and frequency are found, especially for the winter half-year. We hypothesize that the opposing trends on the centennial (1901-2023) vs. decadal (1981-2023) time scales are caused by the interaction between thermodynamics, reflecting the primary influence of human-induced climate change, and the internal variability of atmospheric dynamics. Moreover, we observe a small negative elevation dependency of the daily long-term trends up to 2300 m above sea level. For the 1981-2023 trends, no strong elevation dependencies are found for sub-daily events. For daily events, we find small opposing negative summer and positive winter elevation dependencies for both intensities and frequencies. The reason for these tendencies remains unclear. Our results underscore the need to further investigate the interplay between climate change, internal variability of large-scale dynamics and elevation to better understand heavy precipitation variability in the complex Alpine terrain. Daily and multi-day heavy precipitation intensity and frequency have increased since 1901, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. Heavy precipitation peaks in the 1980s and subsequently shows a decrease in daily to multi-day heavy precipitation due to internal variability. Sub-daily summer heavy precipitation intensity has increased since 1981 with no changes in frequency. Trends in heavy precipitation show only small to no elevation dependencies. image
英文关键词	Alps; climate change; daily and sub-daily; elevation dependency; heavy precipitation; observed trends; Switzerland
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001227479600001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/309097
作者单位	Federal Office of Meteorology & Climatology (MeteoSwiss); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bauer, Victoria M.,Scherrer, Simon C.. The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland[J],2024.
APA	Bauer, Victoria M.,&Scherrer, Simon C..(2024).The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland.ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS.
MLA	Bauer, Victoria M.,et al."The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland".ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2024).