气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111758
	Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea
	Xiong, Pengli; Cai, Yancong; Jiang, Peiwen; Xu, Youwei; Sun, Mingshuai; Fan, Jiangtao; Chen, Zuozhi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
起始页码	160
卷号	160
英文摘要	Understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of marine species is of vital importance for the sustainable development of marine fisheries. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model is employed to predict the potential distribution of Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS) under current conditions and three future climate scenarios (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways RCP126, RCP245, RCP585). The model incorporates vital environmental variables including sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height above geoid (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), ocean mixed layer thickness (MLD), and distance from land (DFL). Notably, SST and SSH are found to be the most influential factors in defining the habitat of T. japonicus. Model predictions reveal that the current suitable habitats for T. japonicus are primarily located in the offshore area to the west of the Pearl River estuary, especially in waters with depths of less than 100 m in the NSCS. The Beibu Gulf emerges as a prominent habitat for this species. However, projections indicate a significant reduction in areas with a high probability of T. japonicus occurrence, particularly in scenarios with high emissions. This reduction in suitable habitats is primarily observed in the NSCS at depths ranging from 40 to 100 m, while the northwestern coastal regions of the NSCS are projected to witness an increase in suitable habitats. The rate of habitats contraction is expected to surpass that of expansion, with an estimated 16.93 % to 29.27 % decrease in suitable habitats by 2091-2100.These findings offer fundamental insights into how climate change impacts the distribution of T. japonicus in the NSCS and provide valuable guidance for future resource development and utilization.
英文关键词	Northern South China Sea; Climate change; Distribution prediction; SDM; Trachurus japonicus; Fisheries management
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001199114100001
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308978
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences; South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, CAFS; Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Affairs
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiong, Pengli,Cai, Yancong,Jiang, Peiwen,et al. Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea[J],2024,160.
APA	Xiong, Pengli.,Cai, Yancong.,Jiang, Peiwen.,Xu, Youwei.,Sun, Mingshuai.,...&Chen, Zuozhi.(2024).Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,160.
MLA	Xiong, Pengli,et al."Impact of climate change on the distribution of Trachurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 160(2024).