气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6

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DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-55340-x
	Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6
	Behzadi, Farhad; Javadi, Saman; Yousefi, Hossein; Shahdany, S. Mehdy Hashemy; Moridi, Ali; Neshat, Aminreza; Golmohammadi, Golmar; Maghsoudi, Rahimeh
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	This research utilized the outputs from three models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), specifically CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. These models were used under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, along with the SPI and SPEI, to assess the impacts of climate change on drought in Iran. The results indicated that the average annual precipitation will increase under some scenarios and decrease under others in the near future (2022-2050). In the distant future (2051-2100), the average annual precipitation will increase in all states by 8-115 mm. The average minimum and maximum temperature will increase by up to 4.85 celcius and 4.9 celcius, respectively in all states except for G2S1. The results suggest that severe droughts are anticipated across Iran, with Cluster 5 expected to experience the longest and most severe drought, lasting 6 years with a severity index of 85 according to the SPI index. Climate change is projected to amplify drought severity, particularly in central and eastern Iran. The SPEI analysis confirms that drought conditions will worsen in the future, with southeastern Iran projected to face the most severe drought lasting 20 years. Climate change is expected to extend drought durations and increase severity, posing significant challenges to water management in Iran.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001179204200076
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308904
作者单位	University of Tehran; Shahid Beheshti University; Islamic Azad University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Behzadi, Farhad,Javadi, Saman,Yousefi, Hossein,et al. Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Behzadi, Farhad.,Javadi, Saman.,Yousefi, Hossein.,Shahdany, S. Mehdy Hashemy.,Moridi, Ali.,...&Maghsoudi, Rahimeh.(2024).Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Behzadi, Farhad,et al."Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).