气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-53308-5
	Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050
	Mahmoud, Mohamed Rami; Roushdi, Mahmoud; Aboelkhear, Mostafa
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2045-2322
起始页码	14
结束页码	1
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate change has been inducing a continuous increase in temperatures within the Arctic region, consequently leading to an escalation in the rates of Arctic ice depletion. These changes have profound implications for navigation along the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, access to the NSR is constrained to specific temporal intervals when the sea ice thickness reaches a threshold that permits safe passage of ships. This research employs climate change model simulations and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System framework to investigate the navigational feasibility of diverse ship types along NSR during the calendar years 2030, 2040, and 2050, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Different ship categories were analyzed within the context of these two scenarios. Results indicate considerable variation in the navigability of different ship categories across different scenarios and years. In general, polar ships demonstrate a higher navigational potential throughout most of the year, while pleasure crafts are constrained to specific periods. These findings bear significant implications for the future of shipping along the NSR. As Arctic ice continues to melt, NSR is anticipated to become more accessible to ships, albeit with navigational availability remaining contingent on the ship category and seasonal considerations.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001157186600034
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308893
作者单位	Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB); National Water Research Center
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahmoud, Mohamed Rami,Roushdi, Mahmoud,Aboelkhear, Mostafa. Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Mahmoud, Mohamed Rami,Roushdi, Mahmoud,&Aboelkhear, Mostafa.(2024).Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Mahmoud, Mohamed Rami,et al."Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).