气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.06.007
	Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways
	Miller, J. Isaac; Brock, William A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0304-4076
EISSN	1872-6895
起始页码	239
结束页码	1
卷号	239 期号:1
英文摘要	Assessments of decreases in economic damages from climate change mitigation typically rely on climate output from computationally expensive pre -computed runs of general circulation models under a handful of scenarios with discretely varying targets, such as the four representative concentration pathways for CO2 and other anthropogenically emitted gases. Although such analyses are valuable in informing scientists and policymakers about massive multilateral mitigation goals, we add to the literature by considering potential outcomes from more modest policy changes that may not be represented by any well-known concentration pathway. Specifically, we construct computationally efficient Quasi -representative Concentration Pathways (QCPs) to leverage concentration pathways of existing peer -reviewed scenarios. Computational efficiency allows for bootstrapping to assess uncertainty. We illustrate our methodology by considering the impact on the relative risk of mortality from heat stress in London from the United Kingdom's net zero emissions goal. More than half of our interval estimate for the business -as -usual scenario covers an annual risk at least that of a COVID-19-like mortality event by 2100. Success of the UK's policy alone would do little to mitigate the risk. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Scenario building; Econometric model of climate change; Nonparametric regression; Economic damages; Heat stress mortality
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Mathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
WOS类目	Economics ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WOS记录号	WOS:001199485600001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308771
作者单位	University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Miller, J. Isaac,Brock, William A.. Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways[J],2024,239(1).
APA	Miller, J. Isaac,&Brock, William A..(2024).Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways.JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS,239(1).
MLA	Miller, J. Isaac,et al."Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways".JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS 239.1(2024).