气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-023-01902-2
	Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change
	Pequeno, Diego N. L.; Ferreira, Thiago B.; Fernandes, Jose M. C.; Singh, Pawan K.; Pavan, Willingthon; Sonder, Kai; Robertson, Richard; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Erenstein, Olaf; Asseng, Senthold
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
英文摘要	Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased. The authors estimate the global vulnerability of wheat crops to wheat blast under current and future climates. They show that warmer, more humid climates can increase wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, subsequently reducing global wheat production.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001154981800002
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308635
作者单位	CGIAR; International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (EMBRAPA); CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Technical University of Munich
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pequeno, Diego N. L.,Ferreira, Thiago B.,Fernandes, Jose M. C.,et al. Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change[J],2024.
APA	Pequeno, Diego N. L..,Ferreira, Thiago B..,Fernandes, Jose M. C..,Singh, Pawan K..,Pavan, Willingthon.,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2024).Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE.
MLA	Pequeno, Diego N. L.,et al."Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2024).