气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023

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DOI	10.1029/2024GL109265
	CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023
	Diamond, Rachel; Sime, Louise C.; Holmes, Caroline R.; Schroeder, David
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	10
卷号	51 期号:10
英文摘要	In 2023, Antarctic sea-ice extent (SIE) reached record lows, with winter SIE falling to 2.5Mkm(2) below the satellite era average. With this multi-model study, we investigate the occurrence of anomalies of this magnitude in latest-generation global climate models. When these anomalies occur, SIE takes decades to recover: this indicates that SIE may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Under internal variability alone, models are extremely unlikely to simulate these anomalies, with return period >1000 years for most models. The only models with return period <1000 years for these anomalies have likely unrealistically large interannual variability. Based on extreme value theory, the return period is reduced from 2650 years under internal variability to 580 years under a strong climate change forcing scenario. Plain Language Summary In 2023, the area of winter Antarctic sea ice fell to the lowest measured since satellite records began in late 1978. It is still under debate how far this low can be explained by natural variations, and how much can be explained by climate change. Global climate models are tools used to study past and predict future global change. We show that, without climate change, the latest generation of these models are extremely unlikely to simulate a sea-ice reduction from the mean as large as observed in winter 2023. Including strong climate change quadruples the chance of such a reduction, but the chance is still very low. When these rare reductions are simulated, sea ice takes around 10 years to recover to a new, lower, area: this indicates that Antarctic sea ice may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades.
英文关键词	Antarctica; sea ice; variability; CMIP6; climate models; Southern Ocean
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001227370900001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308511
作者单位	UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC British Antarctic Survey; University of Cambridge; University of Reading
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Diamond, Rachel,Sime, Louise C.,Holmes, Caroline R.,et al. CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023[J],2024,51(10).
APA	Diamond, Rachel,Sime, Louise C.,Holmes, Caroline R.,&Schroeder, David.(2024).CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(10).
MLA	Diamond, Rachel,et al."CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.10(2024).