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| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0162.1 |
| Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| EISSN | 1520-0442 |
| 起始页码 | 37 |
| 结束页码 | 3 |
| 卷号 | 37期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | The Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Robust estimation of future changes in the Sahel monsoon is therefore essential for effective climate change adaptation. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainties in their projections of Sahel rainfall. In this study, we use 32 models from CMIP6 to iden-tify the sources of this large intermodel spread of Sahel rainfall. By using maximum covariance analysis, we first highlight two new key drivers of this spread during boreal summer: the interhemispheric temperature gradient and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) changes. This contrasts with previous studies, which have focused mainly on the Northern Hemisphere rather than the global scale, and in which the Pacific Ocean has been neglected in favor of the Atlantic. Next, we unravel the physical mechanisms behind these statistical relationships. First, the modulation of the interhemispheric temperature gradient across the models leads to varying latitudinal positions of the intertropical convergence zone and, consequently, varying Sahel rainfall intensity. Second, models that exhibit less warming than the multimodel mean in the equatorial Pacific, thereby projecting a less El Nino-like mean state, simulate enhanced precipitation over the central Sahel in the future through modulations of the Walker circulation, the tropical easterly jet, the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient, and hence regional zonal wind shear. Finally, we show that these two indices collectively explain 62% of Sahel rainfall change uncertainty: 40% due to the interhemispheric temperature gradient and 22% through equato-rial Pacific SST. |
| 英文关键词 | Teleconnections; Monsoons; Climate change; Uncertainty |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001148802900001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308503 |
| 作者单位 | Universite Paris Saclay; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Earth Sciences & Astronomy (INSU); Universite Paris Cite; Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Sorbonne Universite |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming[J],2024,37(3). |
| APA | (2024).Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,37(3). |
| MLA | "Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 37.3(2024). |
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